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Research Desk

Every morning we read the investment-bank reports so you don't have to. We tell them as a series of observations: the number that matters, the key facts behind it and, when the evidence allows, the investment thesis.

September 29, 202622 posts, 10 reports

In 2026, Big Tech's capex tops its operating cash flow for the first time: over $800bn against $707bn.

  1. China supplied 60% of global cross-border drug-licensing value in the first half of 2026. In 2021 it was 8%.
  2. Meta pays over $5bn in extra interest to keep a $30bn data centre off its balance sheet.
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Earlier

SEP 29In 2026, Big Tech's capex tops its operating cash flow for the first time: $800bn vs $707bn.8 hot takes, 6 theses, 10 reportsSEP 28Memory trades at 4 times earnings on 80% gross margins. Profits could halve before the P/E looks normal.12 theses, 8 reportsSEP 27Meta's Muse cancels forgotten subscriptions in minutes. Stocks that earn from inattention sold off the same week.14 theses, 2 reportsSEP 24Models and apps are 14% of what investors pay for Chinese AI stocks. JPMorgan sees them delivering 64% of profit growth.13 theses, 4 reportsSEP 23Ukrainian drones have hit about 90% of Russia's refining capacity. The squeeze shows up in diesel and gasoline.7 theses, 6 reportsSEP 21Broadcom now backstops the debt that funds its own customers' chip purchases. The guarantees could reach $370bn.8 theses, 6 reportsSEP 17The Fed just raised rates for the first time since 2023. Most officials expect another before year-end.10 theses, 6 reportsSEP 16Trump spent a year demanding rate cuts. His handpicked Fed chair looks set to hike this week.13 theses, 7 reportsSEP 15Power is getting solved. The real limit on AI data centers is now building them.14 theses, 7 reportsSEP 15The 10-year Treasury yield just touched 5%, and the Fed looks set to hike into it.6 theses, 2 reportsSEP 14Local opposition to data centers is becoming the real threat to AI spending.13 theses, 7 reportsSEP 13Inflation is stuck at 3.4%, pushing the Fed toward another rate hike.13 theses, 3 reportsSEP 12Korea's chip exports jumped 193% and hit a record 44% of all exports. Christopher Wood calls it a semiconductor supercycle.10 theses, 6 reportsSEP 11Gold's rally is now driven by broad, genuine long-term buying. It is not just a single geopolitical scare.18 theses, 11 reports