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China Hongqiao Group Limited (1378) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

China Hongqiao Group Limited

1378Market cap $26BPrice $2.7

Country🇨🇳China

SectorMaterials

IndustryMetals & Mining

Produces aluminum through integrated bauxite mining, alumina refining, and smelting operations across China. Controls one of the world's largest aluminum production capacities, supplying metal essential for everything from cars to smartphones.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-13%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+7%6

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+13%7

Rev CAGR (3y)+2%2

Rev CAGR (5y)+1%2

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+49%9

EPS Growth Y+2-3%3

EPS Growth Y+3+3%4

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin25%8

Net Income Margin16%7

Free Cash Flow Margin20%8

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA0.37

Efficiency

ROE23%8

ROA13%9

Earnings Stability77

GEAR+STRONG71

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)510

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)510

P/BV1.38

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd310

EV/EBIT Fwd310

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield19.5%10

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-11%2

3 month return-0%6

YTD return-32%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh53%2

1 year return-18%3

Long term

3 year return+266%10

5 year return+235%9

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.13

Volatility49%3

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin20%8

Free Cash Flow Yield19.5%10

Quality

ROCE25%9

Earnings Stability77

Net Debt/EBITDA0.37

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

1378China Hongqiao Group

Revenue FY25$23.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK25 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+7%6

Revenue, next 1Y+13%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+2%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+1%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+49%9

EPS growth, FY27E-3%3

EPS growth, FY28E+3%4

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Revenue is set to grow 2%/yr over the next 3 years, a little behind the market.4/10

Revenue grew 7%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 2%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 3%/yr vs revenue 2%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 3% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 75% of companies worldwide.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 1%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the five-year outlook is thin.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

1378China Hongqiao Group

Total return Current443%

Price return Current203%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE42 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-11%2

3-month return-0%6

YTD return-32%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high53%2

1-year return-18%3

3-year return+266%10

5-year return+235%9

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Magnificent long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +266% over three years and +235% over five, ahead of 90% of the market.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over three months (+0%).

WEAKNESSES

It's down 18% over the past year, now 47% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-11%) and so far this year (-32%).

BOTTOM LINE

Outperformer in a Drawdown

A proven multi-year compounder now in a meaningful pullback well below its 52-week high. This is the classic fork: either a buy-the-dip in an intact uptrend, or the early stage of a trend change. Wait for the short-term slide to stabilise before adding. The one thing to watch: the one-year trend is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Hongqiao. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

1378China Hongqiao Group

Revenue FY25$23.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK25 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+7%6

Revenue, next 1Y+13%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+2%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+1%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+49%9

EPS growth, FY27E-3%3

EPS growth, FY28E+3%4

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Revenue is set to grow 2%/yr over the next 3 years, a little behind the market.4/10

Revenue grew 7%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 2%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 3%/yr vs revenue 2%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 3% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 75% of companies worldwide.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 1%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the five-year outlook is thin.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

1378China Hongqiao Group

Total return Current443%

Price return Current203%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE42 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-11%2

3-month return-0%6

YTD return-32%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high53%2

1-year return-18%3

3-year return+266%10

5-year return+235%9

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Magnificent long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +266% over three years and +235% over five, ahead of 90% of the market.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over three months (+0%).

WEAKNESSES

It's down 18% over the past year, now 47% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-11%) and so far this year (-32%).

BOTTOM LINE

Outperformer in a Drawdown

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Hongqiao. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community