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Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited (1929) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited

1929Market cap $14BPrice $1.4

Country🇭🇰Hong Kong

SectorConsumer

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Sells gold jewelry and watches across thousands of stores in Greater China, making it the world's largest jewelry retailer by market value. Gold prices swing its margins daily, but its brand keeps generations of Chinese shoppers loyal.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-34%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-0%3

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+6%5

Rev CAGR (3y)+5%4

Rev CAGR (5y)+5%5

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+16%8

EPS Growth Y+2+5%5

EPS Growth Y+3+5%5

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin19%7

Net Income Margin10%5

Free Cash Flow Margin1%3

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA0.96

Efficiency

ROE31%9

ROA11%9

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+AVERAGE48

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)108

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)98

P/BV3.54

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd87

EV/EBIT Fwd99

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.7%3

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-11%2

3 month return-2%6

YTD return-8%4

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh68%3

1 year return-23%2

Long term

3 year return+14%3

5 year return-7%3

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.86

Volatility40%4

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin1%3

Free Cash Flow Yield0.7%3

Quality

ROCE53%10

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDA0.96

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

1929Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group

Revenue FY26$12.0B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE38 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-0%3

Revenue, next 1Y+6%5

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+5%4

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+5%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+16%8

EPS growth, FY28E+5%5

EPS growth, FY29E+5%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 5%/yr from here.

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 5%/yr vs revenue 5%/yr).

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 38% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 5%/yr over the next 3 years, in line with the market.5/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 5%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

WEAKNESSES

Revenue held flat over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

1929Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group

Total return Current119%

Price return Current42.6%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK15 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-11%2

3-month return-2%6

YTD return-8%4

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high68%3

1-year return-23%2

3-year return+14%3

5-year return-7%3

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over three months (-2%) and so far this year (-8%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+14% over three years and -6.7% over five), behind 70% of the market.

It's down 23% over the past year, now 32% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-11%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Chow Tai Fook. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

1929Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group

Revenue FY26$12.0B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE38 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-0%3

Revenue, next 1Y+6%5

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+5%4

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+5%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+16%8

EPS growth, FY28E+5%5

EPS growth, FY29E+5%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 5%/yr from here.

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 5%/yr vs revenue 5%/yr).

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 38% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 5%/yr over the next 3 years, in line with the market.5/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 5%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

WEAKNESSES

Revenue held flat over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

1929Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group

Total return Current119%

Price return Current42.6%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK15 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-11%2

3-month return-2%6

YTD return-8%4

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high68%3

1-year return-23%2

3-year return+14%3

5-year return-7%3

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over three months (-2%) and so far this year (-8%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+14% over three years and -6.7% over five), behind 70% of the market.

It's down 23% over the past year, now 32% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-11%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Chow Tai Fook. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community