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The AES Corporation (AES) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

The AES Corporation

AESMarket cap $11BPrice $14.9

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorUtilities

IndustryPower & Renewables

AES generates and distributes electricity across the Americas, powering utilities and corporate giants like Google and Amazon. It's one of the biggest sellers of clean energy to big tech, quietly fueling the AI data center boom one megawatt at a time.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+6%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-1%3

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+17%8

Rev CAGR (3y)+3%3

Rev CAGR (5y)+10%7

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+84%10

EPS Growth Y+2+4%5

EPS Growth Y+3+4%5

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin19%7

Net Income Margin14%7

Free Cash Flow Margin-13%2

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA7.51

Efficiency

ROE46%10

ROA2%4

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+AVERAGE50

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)610

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)610

P/BV2.26

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd183

EV/EBIT Fwd175

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield-16.1%1

Dividend Yield4.7%9

Momentum

Short term

1 month return+1%8

3 month return+3%7

YTD return+8%6

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh87%7

1 year return+6%6

Long term

3 year return+39%5

5 year return-24%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.67

Volatility28%7

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin-13%2

Free Cash Flow Yield-16.1%1

Quality

ROCE6%4

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDA7.51

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

AESThe AES

Revenue FY25$12.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE47 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-1%3

Revenue, next 1Y+17%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+3%3

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+10%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+84%10

EPS growth, FY27E+4%5

EPS growth, FY28E+4%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over five years.7/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 4%/yr vs revenue 3%/yr).

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 47% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 3%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 3%/yr from here.

WEAKNESSES

Revenue fell 1%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE57 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return+1%8

3-month return+3%7

YTD return+8%6

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high87%7

1-year return+6%6

3-year return+39%5

5-year return-24%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It's up 6% over the past year, but 13% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (+1%) and over three months (+3%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level so far this year (+8%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+39% over three years and -24% over five), behind 60% of the market.

BOTTOM LINE

Early Turnaround

A poor multi-year track record but a sharp recent rally. Momentum is turning up, yet the trend is young and unproven — it needs follow-through to confirm rather than fade. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on The AES Corporation. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

AESThe AES

Revenue FY25$12.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE47 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-1%3

Revenue, next 1Y+17%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+3%3

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+10%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+84%10

EPS growth, FY27E+4%5

EPS growth, FY28E+4%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over five years.7/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 4%/yr vs revenue 3%/yr).

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 47% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 3%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 3%/yr from here.

WEAKNESSES

Revenue fell 1%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE57 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return+1%8

3-month return+3%7

YTD return+8%6

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high87%7

1-year return+6%6

3-year return+39%5

5-year return-24%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It's up 6% over the past year, but 13% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (+1%) and over three months (+3%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level so far this year (+8%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+39% over three years and -24% over five), behind 60% of the market.

BOTTOM LINE

Early Turnaround

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on The AES Corporation. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community