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Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

ALRMMarket cap $2.68BPrice $54.7

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorTechnology

IndustrySoftware

Powers the smart home security systems your local alarm company sells as its own. Alarm.com's technology sits behind millions of connected doorbells, cameras, and locks nationwide, quietly collecting recurring subscription revenue while staying invisible to the actual homeowners using it.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+10%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+6%5

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+7%5

Rev CAGR (3y)+6%4

Rev CAGR (5y)+5%4

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+20%8

EPS Growth Y+2+7%6

EPS Growth Y+3+11%7

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin14%6

Net Income Margin11%6

Free Cash Flow Margin18%8

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA0.57

Efficiency

ROE14%6

ROA6%7

Earnings Stability88

GEAR+AVERAGE66

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)175

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)145

P/BV3.15

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd125

EV/EBIT Fwd185

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield7.0%8

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-2%7

3 month return+7%8

YTD return+7%6

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh94%9

1 year return+5%5

Long term

3 year return-9%2

5 year return-30%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.14

Volatility31%7

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin18%8

Free Cash Flow Yield7.0%8

Quality

ROCE10%6

Earnings Stability88

Net Debt/EBITDA0.57

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

ALRMAlarm.com Holdings

Revenue FY25$1.0B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE39 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+6%5

Revenue, next 1Y+7%5

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+6%4

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+5%4

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+20%8

EPS growth, FY27E+7%6

EPS growth, FY28E+11%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 11%/yr vs revenue 6%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 39% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 6%/yr over the next 3 years, a little behind the market.4/10

Revenue grew 6%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 6%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 5%/yr, behind 60% of companies worldwide.4/10

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth is only about average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE53 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-2%7

3-month return+7%8

YTD return+7%6

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high94%9

1-year return+5%5

3-year return-9%2

5-year return-30%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It's up 5% over the past year, now 6% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (-2%) and over three months (+7%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level so far this year (+7%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-9% over three years and -30% over five), behind 80% of the market.

BOTTOM LINE

Early Turnaround

A poor multi-year track record but a sharp recent rally. Momentum is turning up, yet the trend is young and unproven — it needs follow-through to confirm rather than fade. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

ALRMAlarm.com Holdings

Revenue FY25$1.0B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE39 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+6%5

Revenue, next 1Y+7%5

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+6%4

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+5%4

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+20%8

EPS growth, FY27E+7%6

EPS growth, FY28E+11%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 11%/yr vs revenue 6%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 39% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 6%/yr over the next 3 years, a little behind the market.4/10

Revenue grew 6%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 6%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 5%/yr, behind 60% of companies worldwide.4/10

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth is only about average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE53 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-2%7

3-month return+7%8

YTD return+7%6

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high94%9

1-year return+5%5

3-year return-9%2

5-year return-30%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It's up 5% over the past year, now 6% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (-2%) and over three months (+7%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level so far this year (+7%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-9% over three years and -30% over five), behind 80% of the market.

BOTTOM LINE

Early Turnaround

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community