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Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Astrana Health, Inc.

ASTHMarket cap $1.89BPrice $37.0

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorHealthcare

IndustryHealthcare Services

Manages care for hundreds of thousands of patients through a network of physician groups, taking on financial risk for their outcomes instead of just billing for visits. It bets on keeping people healthy being more profitable than treating them sick.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+16%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+41%10

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+25%9

Rev CAGR (3y)+14%8

Rev CAGR (5y)+12%8

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+555%10

EPS Growth Y+2+23%8

EPS Growth Y+3+0%4

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin3%2

Net Income Margin1%2

Free Cash Flow Margin2%3

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA3.03

Efficiency

ROE5%3

ROA2%4

Earnings Stability44

GEAR+AVERAGE40

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)118

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)108

P/BV2.36

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd87

EV/EBIT Fwd156

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield5.0%6

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-4%6

3 month return-21%2

YTD return+49%9

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh72%4

1 year return+22%7

Long term

3 year return+13%3

5 year return-56%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.13

Volatility68%2

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin2%3

Free Cash Flow Yield5.0%6

Quality

ROCE9%5

Earnings Stability44

Net Debt/EBITDA3.03

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

ASTHAstrana Health

Revenue FY25$3.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG84 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+41%10

Revenue, next 1Y+25%9

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+14%8

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+12%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+555%10

EPS growth, FY27E+23%8

EPS growth, FY28E+0%4

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 84% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 41%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

Revenue is set to grow 14%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.8/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 12%/yr over five years.8/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 23%/yr vs revenue 14%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

Revenue grew 41%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 14%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK21 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-4%6

3-month return-21%2

YTD return+49%9

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high72%4

1-year return+22%7

3-year return+13%3

5-year return-56%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming so far this year (+49%).

WATCH

It's up 22% over the past year, but 28% below its 52-week high. That is a touch ahead of the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-4%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+13% over three years and -56% over five), behind 80% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-21%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Astrana Health, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

ASTHAstrana Health

Revenue FY25$3.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG84 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+41%10

Revenue, next 1Y+25%9

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+14%8

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+12%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+555%10

EPS growth, FY27E+23%8

EPS growth, FY28E+0%4

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 84% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 41%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

Revenue is set to grow 14%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.8/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 12%/yr over five years.8/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 23%/yr vs revenue 14%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

Revenue grew 41%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 14%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK21 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-4%6

3-month return-21%2

YTD return+49%9

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high72%4

1-year return+22%7

3-year return+13%3

5-year return-56%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming so far this year (+49%).

WATCH

It's up 22% over the past year, but 28% below its 52-week high. That is a touch ahead of the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-4%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+13% over three years and -56% over five), behind 80% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-21%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Astrana Health, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community