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Certara, Inc. (CERT) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Certara, Inc.

CERTMarket cap $1.37BPrice $9.0

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorHealthcare

IndustryHealthcare Tech

Certara builds software and runs simulations that predict how drugs behave in the human body before they ever reach clinical trials. Regulators actually accept this modeling data, helping pharma companies cut costs and speed up approvals industry-wide.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-25%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+8%6

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-10%1

Rev CAGR (3y)-1%1

Rev CAGR (5y)+3%3

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+10%5

EPS Growth Y+2+15%7

EPS Growth Y+3+12%7

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin4%2

Net Income Margin-16%1

Free Cash Flow Margin19%8

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA1.25

Efficiency

ROE-2%2

ROA-5%1

Earnings Stability44

GEAR+VERY WEAK4

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)223

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)203

P/BV1.48

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd134

EV/EBIT Fwd165

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield5.9%7

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return+16%10

3 month return+37%10

YTD return+2%5

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh67%3

1 year return-31%2

Long term

3 year return-38%1

5 year return-73%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.81

Volatility62%2

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin19%8

Free Cash Flow Yield5.9%7

Quality

ROCE1%2

Earnings Stability44

Net Debt/EBITDA1.25

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

CERTCertara

Revenue FY25$419M

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK13 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 1Y-10%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-1%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+3%3

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E0%5

EPS growth, FY27E+15%7

EPS growth, FY28E+12%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 87% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to shrink 0.7%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Revenue grew 8%/yr over the last 3 years, but it is set to shrink 0.7%/yr from here.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 3%/yr, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business heading into decline. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE34 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return+16%10

3-month return+37%10

YTD return+2%5

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high67%3

1-year return-31%2

3-year return-38%1

5-year return-73%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (+16%) and over three months (+37%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level so far this year (+2%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-38% over three years and -73% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 31% over the past year, now 33% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

BOTTOM LINE

Early Turnaround

A poor multi-year track record but a sharp recent rally. Momentum is turning up, yet the trend is young and unproven — it needs follow-through to confirm rather than fade. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Certara, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

CERTCertara

Revenue FY25$419M

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK13 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 1Y-10%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-1%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+3%3

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E0%5

EPS growth, FY27E+15%7

EPS growth, FY28E+12%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 87% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to shrink 0.7%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Revenue grew 8%/yr over the last 3 years, but it is set to shrink 0.7%/yr from here.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 3%/yr, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business heading into decline. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE34 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return+16%10

3-month return+37%10

YTD return+2%5

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high67%3

1-year return-31%2

3-year return-38%1

5-year return-73%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (+16%) and over three months (+37%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level so far this year (+2%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-38% over three years and -73% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 31% over the past year, now 33% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

BOTTOM LINE

Early Turnaround

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Certara, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community