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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

CFMarket cap $18BPrice $116.0

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorMaterials

IndustryChemicals

CF Industries makes nitrogen fertilizer, the stuff that literally feeds the planet by boosting crop yields. It's also quietly becoming a hydrogen and clean ammonia player, since ammonia production is one of the biggest industrial carbon emitters worldwide.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+41%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-14%1

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+13%7

Rev CAGR (3y)-2%1

Rev CAGR (5y)-0%1

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+125%10

EPS Growth Y+2-36%2

EPS Growth Y+3-12%3

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin39%9

Net Income Margin27%9

Free Cash Flow Margin25%9

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA0.37

Efficiency

ROE39%10

ROA17%10

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+STRONG79

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)108

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)145

P/BV3.15

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd69

EV/EBIT Fwd610

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield10.9%9

Dividend Yield2.1%5

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-13%2

3 month return+1%7

YTD return+52%9

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh82%6

1 year return+29%8

Long term

3 year return+54%6

5 year return+112%8

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta-0.310

Volatility43%4

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin25%9

Free Cash Flow Yield10.9%9

Quality

ROCE22%9

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDA0.37

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

CFCF Industries Holdings

Revenue FY25$5.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK9 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-14%1

Revenue, next 1Y+13%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-2%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR-0%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+125%10

EPS growth, FY27E-36%2

EPS growth, FY28E-12%3

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Revenue fell 14%/yr over the last 3 years, and it is still set to shrink 2%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 91% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 14%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

Revenue is set to shrink 2%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

Over five years revenue is set to hold flat, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

Earnings are set to fall along with revenue (EPS about -12%/yr vs revenue -2%/yr).

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business whose decline is easing. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE60 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-13%2

3-month return+1%7

YTD return+52%9

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high82%6

1-year return+29%8

3-year return+54%6

5-year return+112%8

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +54% over three years and +112% over five, ahead of 60% of the market.

It's up 29% over the past year, but 18% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+1%) and so far this year (+52%).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-13%).

BOTTOM LINE

Momentum Leader

Short- and long-term returns both rank among the best globally. The market is behind it — a core fit for momentum strategies. The one thing to watch: the stock is underperforming over the past month.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on CF. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

CFCF Industries Holdings

Revenue FY25$5.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK9 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-14%1

Revenue, next 1Y+13%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-2%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR-0%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+125%10

EPS growth, FY27E-36%2

EPS growth, FY28E-12%3

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Revenue fell 14%/yr over the last 3 years, and it is still set to shrink 2%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 91% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 14%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

Revenue is set to shrink 2%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

Over five years revenue is set to hold flat, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

Earnings are set to fall along with revenue (EPS about -12%/yr vs revenue -2%/yr).

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business whose decline is easing. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE60 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-13%2

3-month return+1%7

YTD return+52%9

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high82%6

1-year return+29%8

3-year return+54%6

5-year return+112%8

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +54% over three years and +112% over five, ahead of 60% of the market.

It's up 29% over the past year, but 18% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+1%) and so far this year (+52%).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-13%).

BOTTOM LINE

Momentum Leader

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on CF. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community