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Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Churchill Downs Incorporated

CHDNMarket cap $5.15BPrice $74.0

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorConsumer

IndustryHotels & Leisure

Runs the horse racing track that hosts the Kentucky Derby, plus a growing empire of casinos and online betting platforms across the US. One two-minute race generates more buzz than entire sports leagues manage all year.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-18%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+17%9

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+3%4

Rev CAGR (3y)+3%3

Rev CAGR (5y)+3%2

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+31%9

EPS Growth Y+2+4%5

EPS Growth Y+3+11%7

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin26%8

Net Income Margin14%7

Free Cash Flow Margin19%8

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA4.62

Efficiency

ROE35%9

ROA6%6

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+AVERAGE62

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)118

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)98

P/BV3.84

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd88

EV/EBIT Fwd127

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield11.0%9

Dividend Yield0.6%2

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-14%2

3 month return-13%3

YTD return-35%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh62%2

1 year return-20%2

Long term

3 year return-33%1

5 year return-39%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.67

Volatility35%5

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin19%8

Free Cash Flow Yield11.0%9

Quality

ROCE12%6

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDA4.62

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

CHDNChurchill Downs

Revenue FY25$2.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK31 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+17%9

Revenue, next 1Y+3%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+3%3

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+3%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+31%9

EPS growth, FY27E+4%5

EPS growth, FY28E+11%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 17%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 11%/yr vs revenue 3%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

Revenue grew 17%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 3%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 69% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 3%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 3%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is slowing. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK5 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-14%2

3-month return-13%3

YTD return-35%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high62%2

1-year return-20%2

3-year return-33%1

5-year return-39%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-33% over three years and -39% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 20% over the past year, now 38% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-14%), over three months (-13%) and so far this year (-35%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Churchill Downs Incorporated. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

CHDNChurchill Downs

Revenue FY25$2.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK31 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+17%9

Revenue, next 1Y+3%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+3%3

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+3%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+31%9

EPS growth, FY27E+4%5

EPS growth, FY28E+11%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 17%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 11%/yr vs revenue 3%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

Revenue grew 17%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 3%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 69% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 3%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 3%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is slowing. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK5 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-14%2

3-month return-13%3

YTD return-35%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high62%2

1-year return-20%2

3-year return-33%1

5-year return-39%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-33% over three years and -39% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 20% over the past year, now 38% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-14%), over three months (-13%) and so far this year (-35%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Churchill Downs Incorporated. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community