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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated today

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

CMGMarket cap $41BPrice $32.7

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorConsumer

IndustryHotels & Leisure

Operates fast-casual Mexican restaurants where customers customize burritos, bowls, and tacos in assembly-line fashion. Commands premium prices while sourcing ingredients with higher standards than most restaurant chains.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-22%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+11%7

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+9%6

Rev CAGR (3y)+10%7

Rev CAGR (5y)+10%7

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+2%4

EPS Growth Y+2+16%8

EPS Growth Y+3+13%7

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin15%6

Net Income Margin11%6

Free Cash Flow Margin13%6

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA1.65

Efficiency

ROE50%10

ROA16%10

Earnings Stability1010

GEAR+AVERAGE66

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)243

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)213

P/BV18.81

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd192

EV/EBIT Fwd233

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield3.8%5

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-9%2

3 month return-6%5

YTD return-12%3

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh76%5

1 year return-20%3

Long term

3 year return-11%2

5 year return-10%3

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.95

Volatility44%4

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin13%6

Free Cash Flow Yield3.8%5

Quality

ROCE24%9

Earnings Stability1010

Net Debt/EBITDA1.65

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

CMGChipotle Mexican Grill

Revenue FY25$11.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE65 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+11%7

Revenue, next 1Y+9%6

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+10%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+10%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+2%4

EPS growth, FY27E+16%8

EPS growth, FY28E+13%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 11%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 60% of companies worldwide.7/10

Revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

Revenue grew 11%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 10%/yr.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over five years.7/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 13%/yr vs revenue 10%/yr).

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 65% of companies worldwide.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK17 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-9%2

3-month return-6%5

YTD return-12%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high76%5

1-year return-20%3

3-year return-11%2

5-year return-10%3

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

It's down 20% over the past year, now 24% below its 52-week high. That is a touch behind the market.

Returns sit at the market level over three months (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-11% over three years and -10% over five), behind 70% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-9%) and so far this year (-12%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Chipotle. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

CMGChipotle Mexican Grill

Revenue FY25$11.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE65 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+11%7

Revenue, next 1Y+9%6

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+10%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+10%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+2%4

EPS growth, FY27E+16%8

EPS growth, FY28E+13%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 11%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 60% of companies worldwide.7/10

Revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

Revenue grew 11%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 10%/yr.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 10%/yr over five years.7/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 13%/yr vs revenue 10%/yr).

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 65% of companies worldwide.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK17 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-9%2

3-month return-6%5

YTD return-12%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high76%5

1-year return-20%3

3-year return-11%2

5-year return-10%3

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

It's down 20% over the past year, now 24% below its 52-week high. That is a touch behind the market.

Returns sit at the market level over three months (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-11% over three years and -10% over five), behind 70% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-9%) and so far this year (-12%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Chipotle. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community