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Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (DFH) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Dream Finders Homes, Inc.

DFHMarket cap $0.88BPrice $9.7

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorConsumer

IndustryHousehold

Builds homes across the U.S. using an asset-light, land-light model that lets it scale fast without tying up cash in dirt. It's one of the fastest-growing homebuilders in the country, and most buyers pick their house before it's even built.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-58%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+9%6

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-1%2

Rev CAGR (3y)+1%2

Rev CAGR (5y)+2%2

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1-51%1

EPS Growth Y+2-27%2

EPS Growth Y+3+22%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin4%2

Net Income Margin4%3

Free Cash Flow Margin-4%2

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA7.11

Efficiency

ROE10%4

ROA4%5

Earnings Stability44

GEAR+VERY WEAK4

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)156

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)108

P/BV0.610

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd78

EV/EBIT Fwd710

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield-18.3%1

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-29%1

3 month return-41%1

YTD return-43%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh38%1

1 year return-60%1

Long term

3 year return-55%1

5 year return-40%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.23

Volatility60%2

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin-4%2

Free Cash Flow Yield-18.3%1

Quality

ROCE5%3

Earnings Stability44

Net Debt/EBITDA7.11

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

DFHDream Finders Homes

Revenue FY25$4.3B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK11 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+9%6

Revenue, next 1Y-1%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+1%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+2%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-51%1

EPS growth, FY27E-27%2

EPS growth, FY28E+22%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Revenue grew 9%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 1%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 89% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 1%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 2%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

Earnings are set to fall even as revenue grows (EPS about -27%/yr vs revenue 1%/yr).

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is slowing. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK1 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-29%1

3-month return-41%1

YTD return-43%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high38%1

1-year return-60%1

3-year return-55%1

5-year return-40%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-55% over three years and -40% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 60% over the past year, now 62% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-29%), over three months (-41%) and so far this year (-43%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Dream Finders Homes, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

DFHDream Finders Homes

Revenue FY25$4.3B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK11 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+9%6

Revenue, next 1Y-1%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+1%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+2%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-51%1

EPS growth, FY27E-27%2

EPS growth, FY28E+22%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Revenue grew 9%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 1%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 89% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 1%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 2%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

Earnings are set to fall even as revenue grows (EPS about -27%/yr vs revenue 1%/yr).

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is slowing. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK1 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-29%1

3-month return-41%1

YTD return-43%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high38%1

1-year return-60%1

3-year return-55%1

5-year return-40%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-55% over three years and -40% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 60% over the past year, now 62% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-29%), over three months (-41%) and so far this year (-43%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Dream Finders Homes, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community