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Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Federal National Mortgage Association

FNMAMarket cap $23BPrice $4.1

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorFinancials

Buys mortgages from banks and packages them into securities that investors trade globally. Controls nearly half of America's mortgage market, making homeownership possible for millions while creating systemic financial risk.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-62%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+4%4

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+6%5

Rev CAGR (3y)+5%4

Rev CAGR (5y)+4%4

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+638%10

EPS Growth Y+2-41%2

EPS Growth Y+3+46%9

Quality

Margins

EBIT Marginna–

Net Income Margin54%10

Free Cash Flow Margin149%10

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

Efficiency

ROEna–

ROA0%2

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+VERY WEAK5

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)5021

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)4221

P/BVna–

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwdna1

EV/EBIT Fwdna1

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yieldna1

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-32%1

3 month return-34%1

YTD return-62%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh32%1

1 year return-66%1

Long term

3 year return+619%10

5 year return+464%10

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.04

Volatility83%1

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin149%10

Free Cash Flow Yieldna1

Quality

ROCE0%2

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

FNMAFederal National Mortgage Association

Revenue FY25$27.5B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE38 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+4%4

Revenue, next 1Y+6%5

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+5%4

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+4%4

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+638%10

EPS growth, FY27E-41%2

EPS growth, FY28E+46%9

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 38% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 5%/yr over the next 3 years, a little behind the market.4/10

Revenue grew 4%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 5%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 4%/yr, behind 60% of companies worldwide.4/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 46%/yr vs revenue 5%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 41% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth is only about average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK20 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-32%1

3-month return-34%1

YTD return-62%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high32%1

1-year return-66%1

3-year return+619%10

5-year return+464%10

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Magnificent long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +619% over three years and +464% over five, ahead of 90% of the market.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

It's down 66% over the past year, now 68% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-32%), over three months (-34%) and so far this year (-62%).

BOTTOM LINE

Outperformer in a Drawdown

A proven multi-year compounder now in a meaningful pullback well below its 52-week high. This is the classic fork: either a buy-the-dip in an intact uptrend, or the early stage of a trend change. Wait for the short-term slide to stabilise before adding. The one thing to watch: the one-year trend is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Federal National Mortgage Association. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

FNMAFederal National Mortgage Association

Revenue FY25$27.5B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE38 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+4%4

Revenue, next 1Y+6%5

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+5%4

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+4%4

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+638%10

EPS growth, FY27E-41%2

EPS growth, FY28E+46%9

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 38% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 5%/yr over the next 3 years, a little behind the market.4/10

Revenue grew 4%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 5%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 4%/yr, behind 60% of companies worldwide.4/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 46%/yr vs revenue 5%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 41% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth is only about average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK20 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-32%1

3-month return-34%1

YTD return-62%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high32%1

1-year return-66%1

3-year return+619%10

5-year return+464%10

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Magnificent long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +619% over three years and +464% over five, ahead of 90% of the market.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

It's down 66% over the past year, now 68% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-32%), over three months (-34%) and so far this year (-62%).

BOTTOM LINE

Outperformer in a Drawdown

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Federal National Mortgage Association. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community