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The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.

GBXMarket cap $1.24BPrice $40.1

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorIndustrials

IndustryMachinery

Manufactures railroad freight cars and provides leasing and services for the rail industry across North America and Europe. It's one of the few companies that builds, leases, and maintains the trains hauling most of America's freight.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-10%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+3%4

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-23%1

Rev CAGR (3y)-6%1

Rev CAGR (5y)-4%1

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1-53%1

EPS Growth Y+2+22%8

EPS Growth Y+3+36%9

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin6%3

Net Income Margin4%3

Free Cash Flow Margin-4%2

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA5.22

Efficiency

ROE7%3

ROA3%4

Earnings Stability77

GEAR+VERY WEAK9

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)127

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)89

P/BV0.810

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd106

EV/EBIT Fwd185

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield-9.1%1

Dividend Yield3.4%8

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-7%3

3 month return-12%3

YTD return-12%3

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh69%3

1 year return-8%4

Long term

3 year return+10%3

5 year return+3%4

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.57

Volatility32%6

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin-4%2

Free Cash Flow Yield-9.1%1

Quality

ROCE4%3

Earnings Stability77

Net Debt/EBITDA5.22

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

GBXThe Greenbrier Companies

Revenue FY25$3.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK5 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+3%4

Revenue, next 1Y-23%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-6%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR-4%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-53%1

EPS growth, FY27E+22%8

EPS growth, FY28E+36%9

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 22%/yr vs revenue -6%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 53% next year.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 95% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to shrink 6%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Revenue grew 3%/yr over the last 3 years, but it is set to shrink 6%/yr from here.

Over five years revenue is set to shrink 4%/yr, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business heading into decline. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK15 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-7%3

3-month return-12%3

YTD return-12%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high69%3

1-year return-8%4

3-year return+10%3

5-year return+3%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+9.9% over three years and +3.1% over five), behind 60% of the market.

It's down 8% over the past year, now 31% below its 52-week high. That is a touch behind the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-7%), over three months (-12%) and so far this year (-12%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

GBXThe Greenbrier Companies

Revenue FY25$3.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK5 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+3%4

Revenue, next 1Y-23%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-6%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR-4%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-53%1

EPS growth, FY27E+22%8

EPS growth, FY28E+36%9

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 22%/yr vs revenue -6%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 53% next year.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 95% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to shrink 6%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Revenue grew 3%/yr over the last 3 years, but it is set to shrink 6%/yr from here.

Over five years revenue is set to shrink 4%/yr, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business heading into decline. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK15 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-7%3

3-month return-12%3

YTD return-12%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high69%3

1-year return-8%4

3-year return+10%3

5-year return+3%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+9.9% over three years and +3.1% over five), behind 60% of the market.

It's down 8% over the past year, now 31% below its 52-week high. That is a touch behind the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-7%), over three months (-12%) and so far this year (-12%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community