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Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated today

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

HGVMarket cap $2.69BPrice $34.6

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorConsumer

IndustryHotels & Leisure

Sells timeshare vacation ownership under the Hilton brand, letting people buy vacation weeks instead of hotel stays. It's essentially real estate with a travel wrapper, banking on the Hilton name to sell what timeshares have long struggled to sell: trust.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-21%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+8%6

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+25%8

Rev CAGR (3y)+9%7

Rev CAGR (5y)+6%5

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+414%10

EPS Growth Y+2-1%3

EPS Growth Y+3+29%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin14%6

Net Income Margin3%3

Free Cash Flow Margin9%5

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA7.71

Efficiency

ROE12%5

ROA1%3

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+AVERAGE41

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)89

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)610

P/BV2.46

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd97

EV/EBIT Fwd146

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield15.4%10

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-14%1

3 month return-31%1

YTD return-23%2

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh62%2

1 year return-17%3

Long term

3 year return-8%2

5 year return-27%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.61

Volatility40%5

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin9%5

Free Cash Flow Yield15.4%10

Quality

ROCE6%4

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDA7.71

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

HGVHilton Grand Vacations

Revenue FY25$4.5B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE63 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 1Y+25%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+9%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+6%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+414%10

EPS growth, FY27E-1%3

EPS growth, FY28E+29%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue is set to grow 9%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

Revenue grew 8%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 9%/yr.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 63% of companies worldwide.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 6%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 29%/yr vs revenue 9%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 1% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower. The one thing to watch: the long-term outlook is only average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK3 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-14%1

3-month return-31%1

YTD return-23%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high62%2

1-year return-17%3

3-year return-8%2

5-year return-27%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-7.9% over three years and -27% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 17% over the past year, now 38% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-14%), over three months (-31%) and so far this year (-23%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

HGVHilton Grand Vacations

Revenue FY25$4.5B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE63 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 1Y+25%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+9%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+6%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+414%10

EPS growth, FY27E-1%3

EPS growth, FY28E+29%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue is set to grow 9%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

Revenue grew 8%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 9%/yr.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 63% of companies worldwide.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 6%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 29%/yr vs revenue 9%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 1% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower. The one thing to watch: the long-term outlook is only average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK3 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-14%1

3-month return-31%1

YTD return-23%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high62%2

1-year return-17%3

3-year return-8%2

5-year return-27%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-7.9% over three years and -27% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 17% over the past year, now 38% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-14%), over three months (-31%) and so far this year (-23%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community