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Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated today

Hillman Solutions Corp.

HLMNMarket cap $1.36BPrice $7.0

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorIndustrials

IndustryMachinery

Supplies the nuts, bolts, screws, and fasteners that keep hardware stores stocked and construction projects together. Hillman's products sit on shelves at over 44,000 retail locations, making it the invisible backbone behind nearly every home improvement aisle in America.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-25%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+1%3

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+9%6

Rev CAGR (3y)+7%5

Rev CAGR (5y)+6%5

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+196%10

EPS Growth Y+2+24%8

EPS Growth Y+3+19%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin7%3

Net Income Margin3%3

Free Cash Flow Margin4%4

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA2.73

Efficiency

ROE3%2

ROA2%4

Earnings Stability66

GEAR+WEAK29

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)108

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)89

P/BV1.19

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd78

EV/EBIT Fwd175

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield4.5%6

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-4%5

3 month return-9%4

YTD return-19%2

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh65%3

1 year return-24%2

Long term

3 year return-12%2

5 year return-36%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.04

Volatility39%5

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin4%4

Free Cash Flow Yield4.5%6

Quality

ROCE5%3

Earnings Stability66

Net Debt/EBITDA2.73

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

HLMNHillman Solutions

Revenue FY25$1.6B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE50 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+1%3

Revenue, next 1Y+9%6

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+7%5

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+6%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+196%10

EPS growth, FY27E+24%8

EPS growth, FY28E+19%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 1%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to grow 7%/yr from here.

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 24%/yr vs revenue 7%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 7%/yr over the next 3 years, in line with the market.5/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 6%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

WEAKNESSES

Revenue grew 1%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's speeding up. The one thing to watch: the 3-year revenue record is weak.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK13 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-4%5

3-month return-9%4

YTD return-19%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high65%3

1-year return-24%2

3-year return-12%2

5-year return-36%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-4%) and over three months (-9%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-12% over three years and -36% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 24% over the past year, now 35% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-19%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Hillman Solutions Corp.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

HLMNHillman Solutions

Revenue FY25$1.6B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE50 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+1%3

Revenue, next 1Y+9%6

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+7%5

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+6%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+196%10

EPS growth, FY27E+24%8

EPS growth, FY28E+19%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 1%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to grow 7%/yr from here.

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 24%/yr vs revenue 7%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 7%/yr over the next 3 years, in line with the market.5/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 6%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

WEAKNESSES

Revenue grew 1%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's speeding up. The one thing to watch: the 3-year revenue record is weak.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK13 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-4%5

3-month return-9%4

YTD return-19%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high65%3

1-year return-24%2

3-year return-12%2

5-year return-36%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-4%) and over three months (-9%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-12% over three years and -36% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 24% over the past year, now 35% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-19%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Hillman Solutions Corp.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community