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Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited

HMYMarket cap $10.00BPrice $16.5

Country🇿🇦South Africa

SectorMaterials

IndustryMetals & Mining

Mines gold and uranium from some of the world's deepest, most labor-intensive shafts in South Africa. Harmony has been digging for over a century and now pushes into higher-margin operations through its Papua New Guinea copper-gold project.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-16%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+32%10

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+5%4

Rev CAGR (3y)+8%6

Rev CAGR (5y)+5%4

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+3%4

EPS Growth Y+2+26%8

EPS Growth Y+3-19%2

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin41%9

Net Income Margin30%9

Free Cash Flow Margin16%7

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA0.09

Efficiency

ROE48%10

ROA29%10

Earnings Stability88

GEAR+VERY STRONG95

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)610

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)510

P/BV2.26

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd310

EV/EBIT Fwd310

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield9.5%9

Dividend Yield4.5%9

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-18%1

3 month return+14%9

YTD return-16%3

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh64%3

1 year return-11%3

Long term

3 year return+347%10

5 year return+398%10

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.76

Volatility66%2

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin16%7

Free Cash Flow Yield9.5%9

Quality

ROCE49%10

Earnings Stability88

Net Debt/EBITDA0.09

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company

Revenue FY26$6.1B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE49 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+32%10

Revenue, next 1Y+5%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+5%4

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+3%4

EPS growth, FY28E+26%8

EPS growth, FY29E-19%2

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 32%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 49% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over the next 3 years, in line with the market.5/10

Revenue grew 32%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 8%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 5%/yr, behind 60% of companies worldwide.4/10

Earnings are set to grow slower than sales (EPS about 3%/yr vs revenue 8%/yr), so margins are under pressure. One year dips: EPS falls 19% in year 3.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Maturing Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth is only about average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company

Total return Current1056%

Price return Current899%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE57 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-18%1

3-month return+14%9

YTD return-16%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high64%3

1-year return-11%3

3-year return+347%10

5-year return+398%10

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Magnificent long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +347% over three years and +398% over five, ahead of 90% of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+14%).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

It's down 11% over the past year, now 36% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-18%) and so far this year (-16%).

BOTTOM LINE

Outperformer in a Drawdown

A proven multi-year compounder now in a meaningful pullback well below its 52-week high. This is the classic fork: either a buy-the-dip in an intact uptrend, or the early stage of a trend change. Wait for the short-term slide to stabilise before adding. The one thing to watch: the one-year trend is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Harmony. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company

Revenue FY26$6.1B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE49 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+32%10

Revenue, next 1Y+5%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+5%4

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+3%4

EPS growth, FY28E+26%8

EPS growth, FY29E-19%2

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 32%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 49% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over the next 3 years, in line with the market.5/10

Revenue grew 32%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 8%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 5%/yr, behind 60% of companies worldwide.4/10

Earnings are set to grow slower than sales (EPS about 3%/yr vs revenue 8%/yr), so margins are under pressure. One year dips: EPS falls 19% in year 3.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Maturing Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth is only about average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company

Total return Current1056%

Price return Current899%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE57 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-18%1

3-month return+14%9

YTD return-16%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high64%3

1-year return-11%3

3-year return+347%10

5-year return+398%10

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Magnificent long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +347% over three years and +398% over five, ahead of 90% of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+14%).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

It's down 11% over the past year, now 36% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-18%) and so far this year (-16%).

BOTTOM LINE

Outperformer in a Drawdown

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Harmony. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community