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Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Heartland Express, Inc.

HTLDMarket cap $0.87BPrice $11.3

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorIndustrials

IndustryGround Transport

Hauls freight across the country as one of the largest truckload carriers in America, running a fleet of thousands of trucks. Grew mainly by acquiring smaller regional carriers, stitching together a nationwide network trip by trip.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+38%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-6%1

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-9%1

Rev CAGR (3y)+2%2

Rev CAGR (5y)+2%2

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+10%5

EPS Growth Y+2+216%10

EPS Growth Y+3+28%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin-7%1

Net Income Margin-3%2

Free Cash Flow Margin-12%2

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA0.96

Efficiency

ROE-3%2

ROA-2%2

Earnings Stability33

GEAR+VERY WEAK3

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)411

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)154

P/BV1.29

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd69

EV/EBIT Fwd372

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield-9.8%1

Dividend Yield0.7%2

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-8%3

3 month return-24%1

YTD return+26%8

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh68%3

1 year return+29%8

Long term

3 year return-20%2

5 year return-27%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.85

Volatility40%4

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin-12%2

Free Cash Flow Yield-9.8%1

Quality

ROCE-4%1

Earnings Stability33

Net Debt/EBITDA0.96

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

HTLDHeartland Express

Revenue FY25$806M

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK10 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-6%1

Revenue, next 1Y-9%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+2%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+2%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E0%5

EPS growth, FY27E+216%10

EPS growth, FY28E+28%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 2%/yr from here.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 90% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 6%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

Revenue is set to grow 2%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 2%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that's turning around. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK13 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-8%3

3-month return-24%1

YTD return+26%8

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high68%3

1-year return+29%8

3-year return-20%2

5-year return-27%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming so far this year (+26%).

WATCH

It's up 29% over the past year, but 32% below its 52-week high. That is a touch ahead of the market.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-20% over three years and -27% over five), behind 80% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-8%) and over three months (-24%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Heartland Express, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

HTLDHeartland Express

Revenue FY25$806M

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK10 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-6%1

Revenue, next 1Y-9%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+2%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+2%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E0%5

EPS growth, FY27E+216%10

EPS growth, FY28E+28%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 2%/yr from here.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 90% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 6%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

Revenue is set to grow 2%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 2%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that's turning around. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK13 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-8%3

3-month return-24%1

YTD return+26%8

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high68%3

1-year return+29%8

3-year return-20%2

5-year return-27%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming so far this year (+26%).

WATCH

It's up 29% over the past year, but 32% below its 52-week high. That is a touch ahead of the market.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-20% over three years and -27% over five), behind 80% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-8%) and over three months (-24%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Heartland Express, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community