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Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (IRFC) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited

IRFCMarket cap $10BPrice $0.8

Country🇮🇳India

SectorFinancials

Raises money from markets and lends it exclusively to Indian Railways to buy locomotives, coaches, and tracks. It's basically Railways' in-house bank, funding almost every rupee of rolling-stock expansion since 1986.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-42%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+0%3

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+23%8

Rev CAGR (3y)+12%7

Rev CAGR (5y)+8%6

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+24%8

EPS Growth Y+2+6%6

EPS Growth Y+3+4%5

Quality

Margins

EBIT Marginna–

Net Income Margin97%10

Free Cash Flow Margin-366%1

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

Efficiency

ROE13%6

ROA1%3

Earnings Stability44

GEAR+AVERAGE40

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)118

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)107

P/BV1.87

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd08

EV/EBIT Fwd08

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%8

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-8%3

3 month return-15%2

YTD return-38%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh57%2

1 year return-39%1

Long term

3 year return+7%3

5 year return+275%9

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.95

Volatility29%7

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin-366%1

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%8

Quality

ROCE2%3

Earnings Stability44

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

IRFCIndian Railway Finance Corporation

Revenue FY26$772M

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE61 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+0%3

Revenue, next 1Y+23%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+12%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+8%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+24%8

EPS growth, FY28E+6%6

EPS growth, FY29E+4%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue is set to grow 12%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

Revenue held flat over the last 3 years and is set to grow 12%/yr from here.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 61% of companies worldwide.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 8%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

Earnings are set to grow slower than sales (EPS about 6%/yr vs revenue 12%/yr), so margins are under pressure.

WEAKNESSES

Revenue held flat over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Reaccelerating Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's speeding up. The one thing to watch: the 3-year revenue record is weak.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

IRFCIndian Railway Finance Corporation

Total return Current184%

Price return Current156%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK14 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-8%3

3-month return-15%2

YTD return-38%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high57%2

1-year return-39%1

3-year return+7%3

5-year return+275%9

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+7.2% over three years and +275% over five), roughly average for the market.

WEAKNESSES

It's down 39% over the past year, now 43% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-8%), over three months (-15%) and so far this year (-38%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the one-year trend is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on IRFC. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

IRFCIndian Railway Finance Corporation

Revenue FY26$772M

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE61 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+0%3

Revenue, next 1Y+23%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+12%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+8%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+24%8

EPS growth, FY28E+6%6

EPS growth, FY29E+4%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue is set to grow 12%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

Revenue held flat over the last 3 years and is set to grow 12%/yr from here.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 61% of companies worldwide.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 8%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

Earnings are set to grow slower than sales (EPS about 6%/yr vs revenue 12%/yr), so margins are under pressure.

WEAKNESSES

Revenue held flat over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Reaccelerating Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's speeding up. The one thing to watch: the 3-year revenue record is weak.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

IRFCIndian Railway Finance Corporation

Total return Current184%

Price return Current156%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK14 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-8%3

3-month return-15%2

YTD return-38%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high57%2

1-year return-39%1

3-year return+7%3

5-year return+275%9

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+7.2% over three years and +275% over five), roughly average for the market.

WEAKNESSES

It's down 39% over the past year, now 43% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-8%), over three months (-15%) and so far this year (-38%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on IRFC. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community