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The St. Joe Company (JOE) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated today

The St. Joe Company

JOEMarket cap $3.69BPrice $64.9

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorReal Estate

IndustryReal Estate Dev

St. Joe develops and manages real estate, resorts, and commercial ventures across Northwest Florida. It owns roughly 175,000 acres, quietly making it one of the region's largest private landowners shaping how an entire coastline gets built.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+36%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+27%9

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-14%1

Rev CAGR (3y)+6%4

Rev CAGR (5y)+3%3

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+4%5

EPS Growth Y+2-38%2

EPS Growth Y+3+17%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin30%9

Net Income Margin22%8

Free Cash Flow Margin39%10

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA2.04

Efficiency

ROE16%7

ROA8%8

Earnings Stability77

GEAR+AVERAGE57

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)421

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)431

P/BV4.83

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd212

EV/EBIT Fwd282

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield5.7%7

Dividend Yield1.0%3

Momentum

Short term

1 month return+1%8

3 month return+9%8

YTD return+10%6

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh89%8

1 year return+38%8

Long term

3 year return+25%4

5 year return+56%6

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.76

Volatility30%7

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin39%10

Free Cash Flow Yield5.7%7

Quality

ROCE11%6

Earnings Stability77

Net Debt/EBITDA2.04

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

JOEThe St. Joe

Revenue FY25$513M

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK29 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+27%9

Revenue, next 1Y-14%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+6%4

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+3%3

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+4%5

EPS growth, FY27E-38%2

EPS growth, FY28E+17%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 27%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

WATCH

Revenue grew 27%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 6%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 4%/yr vs revenue 6%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 38% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 71% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 6%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 3%/yr, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Grower

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is slowing. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

STRONG75 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return+1%8

3-month return+9%8

YTD return+10%6

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high89%8

1-year return+38%8

3-year return+25%4

5-year return+56%6

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It's up 38% over the past year, but 11% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (+1%) and over three months (+9%).

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+25% over three years and +56% over five), roughly average for the market.

Returns sit at the market level so far this year (+10%).

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Fresh Momentum

Short-term returns are strong but the long track record is thin. Momentum is building — confirmation from longer horizons would strengthen the case.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on The St. Joe Company. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

JOEThe St. Joe

Revenue FY25$513M

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK29 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+27%9

Revenue, next 1Y-14%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+6%4

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+3%3

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+4%5

EPS growth, FY27E-38%2

EPS growth, FY28E+17%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 27%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

WATCH

Revenue grew 27%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 6%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 4%/yr vs revenue 6%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 38% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 71% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 6%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 3%/yr, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Grower

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is slowing. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

STRONG75 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return+1%8

3-month return+9%8

YTD return+10%6

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high89%8

1-year return+38%8

3-year return+25%4

5-year return+56%6

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It's up 38% over the past year, but 11% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (+1%) and over three months (+9%).

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+25% over three years and +56% over five), roughly average for the market.

Returns sit at the market level so far this year (+10%).

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Fresh Momentum

Short-term returns are strong but the long track record is thin. Momentum is building — confirmation from longer horizons would strengthen the case.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on The St. Joe Company. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community