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Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz

KSPIMarket cap $18BPrice $93.2

CountryKazakhstan

SectorFinancials

IndustryConsumer Finance

Runs Kazakhstan's dominant super-app, blending payments, e-commerce, and lending into one ecosystem nearly every adult in the country uses weekly. Kaspi turned a Soviet-era bank into a fintech powerhouse that now rivals Amazon, PayPal, and Visa combined for one nation.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+30%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+43%10

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+32%9

Rev CAGR (3y)+17%9

Rev CAGR (5y)+14%9

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+21%8

EPS Growth Y+2+12%7

EPS Growth Y+3+17%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin54%10

Net Income Margin24%8

Free Cash Flow Margin22%8

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA-0.210

Efficiency

ROE47%10

ROA10%8

Earnings Stability1010

GEAR+VERY STRONG100

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)710

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)510

P/BV3.05

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd410

EV/EBIT Fwd410

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%10

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-11%2

3 month return+8%8

YTD return+27%8

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh87%7

1 year return+29%8

Long term

3 year return+8%3

5 year return+7%4

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.13

Volatility33%6

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin22%8

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%10

Quality

ROCE25%8

Earnings Stability1010

Net Debt/EBITDA-0.210

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

KSPIJoint Stock Company Kaspi.kz

Revenue FY25$8.0B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY STRONG92 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+43%10

Revenue, next 1Y+32%9

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+17%9

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+14%9

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+21%8

EPS growth, FY27E+12%7

EPS growth, FY28E+17%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 92% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 43%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

Revenue is set to grow 17%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.9/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 14%/yr over five years.9/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 17%/yr vs revenue 17%/yr).

WATCH

Revenue grew 43%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 17%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

KSPIJoint Stock Company Kaspi.kz

Total return Current107%

Price return Current72.2%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE49 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-11%2

3-month return+8%8

YTD return+27%8

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high87%7

1-year return+29%8

3-year return+8%3

5-year return+7%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It's up 29% over the past year, but 13% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+8%) and so far this year (+27%).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+8.4% over three years and +7% over five), behind 60% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-11%).

BOTTOM LINE

Early Turnaround

A poor multi-year track record but a sharp recent rally. Momentum is turning up, yet the trend is young and unproven — it needs follow-through to confirm rather than fade. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Kaspi.kz. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

KSPIJoint Stock Company Kaspi.kz

Revenue FY25$8.0B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY STRONG92 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+43%10

Revenue, next 1Y+32%9

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+17%9

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+14%9

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+21%8

EPS growth, FY27E+12%7

EPS growth, FY28E+17%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 92% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 43%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

Revenue is set to grow 17%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.9/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 14%/yr over five years.9/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 17%/yr vs revenue 17%/yr).

WATCH

Revenue grew 43%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 17%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

KSPIJoint Stock Company Kaspi.kz

Total return Current107%

Price return Current72.2%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE49 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-11%2

3-month return+8%8

YTD return+27%8

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high87%7

1-year return+29%8

3-year return+8%3

5-year return+7%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It's up 29% over the past year, but 13% below its 52-week high. That is clearly ahead of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+8%) and so far this year (+27%).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+8.4% over three years and +7% over five), behind 60% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-11%).

BOTTOM LINE

Early Turnaround

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Kaspi.kz. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community