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McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

McDonald's Corporation

MCDMarket cap $163BPrice $230.9

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorConsumer

IndustryHotels & Leisure

Operates 40,000+ restaurants serving 70 million customers daily across 100+ countries. Makes more money from real estate than burgers—owns the land under most franchised locations and collects rent.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-24%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+5%5

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+5%4

Rev CAGR (3y)+2%2

Rev CAGR (5y)+2%2

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+13%7

EPS Growth Y+2+7%6

EPS Growth Y+3+5%5

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin46%10

Net Income Margin32%9

Free Cash Flow Margin28%9

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA3.23

Efficiency

ROEna–

ROA15%9

Earnings Stability77

GEAR+AVERAGE58

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)185

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)164

P/BVna–

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd144

EV/EBIT Fwd165

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield4.8%6

Dividend Yield3.3%8

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-10%3

3 month return-16%2

YTD return-23%2

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh69%3

1 year return-20%3

Long term

3 year return-0%3

5 year return+5%4

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.39

Volatility19%10

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin28%9

Free Cash Flow Yield4.8%6

Quality

ROCE23%9

Earnings Stability77

Net Debt/EBITDA3.23

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

MCDMcDonald's

Revenue FY25$25.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK19 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+5%5

Revenue, next 1Y+5%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+2%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+2%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+13%7

EPS growth, FY27E+7%6

EPS growth, FY28E+5%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 7%/yr vs revenue 2%/yr).

WATCH

Revenue grew 5%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 2%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 81% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 2%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 2%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK12 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-10%3

3-month return-16%2

YTD return-23%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high69%3

1-year return-20%3

3-year return-0%3

5-year return+5%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+0% over three years and +4.7% over five), behind 60% of the market.

It's down 20% over the past year, now 31% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-10%), over three months (-16%) and so far this year (-23%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on McDonald's. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

MCDMcDonald's

Revenue FY25$25.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK19 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+5%5

Revenue, next 1Y+5%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+2%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+2%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+13%7

EPS growth, FY27E+7%6

EPS growth, FY28E+5%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 7%/yr vs revenue 2%/yr).

WATCH

Revenue grew 5%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 2%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 81% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 2%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 2%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK12 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-10%3

3-month return-16%2

YTD return-23%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high69%3

1-year return-20%3

3-year return-0%3

5-year return+5%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+0% over three years and +4.7% over five), behind 60% of the market.

It's down 20% over the past year, now 31% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-10%), over three months (-16%) and so far this year (-23%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on McDonald's. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community