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Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Millrose Properties, Inc.

MRPMarket cap $3.85BPrice $23.2

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorReal Estate

IndustrySpecialty REITs

Buys land, entitles it, and sells finished lots to homebuilders like Lennar — its former parent. Spun off in 2025, Millrose owns a massive pipeline of ready-to-build parcels, letting builders skip the risky land-banking game entirely.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-25%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)na–

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+35%9

Rev CAGR (3y)+14%8

Rev CAGR (5y)+16%9

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+26%8

EPS Growth Y+2+6%5

EPS Growth Y+3+1%4

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin85%10

Net Income Margin63%10

Free Cash Flow Margin493%10

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

Efficiency

ROE8%4

ROA5%6

Earnings Stability1010

GEAR+VERY STRONG95

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)710

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)79

P/BV0.710

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd97

EV/EBIT Fwd99

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yieldna–

Dividend Yield13.6%10

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-25%1

3 month return-15%2

YTD return-13%3

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh74%4

1 year return-19%2

Long term

3 year return+26%4

5 year return+26%5

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.57

Volatility29%7

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin493%10

Free Cash Flow Yieldna–

Quality

ROCE7%4

Earnings Stability1010

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG72 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGRna–

Revenue, next 1Y+35%9

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+14%8

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+16%9

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+26%8

EPS growth, FY27E+6%5

EPS growth, FY28E+1%4

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 72% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 14%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.9/10

Revenue held flat over the last 3 years and is set to grow 14%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 16%/yr over five years.9/10

WATCH

Earnings are set to grow slower than sales (EPS about 6%/yr vs revenue 14%/yr), so margins are under pressure.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Reaccelerating Grower

A top-tier grower that's speeding up. The one thing to watch: earnings are set to grow slower than sales.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK13 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-25%1

3-month return-15%2

YTD return-13%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high74%4

1-year return-19%2

3-year return+26%4

5-year return+26%5

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+26% over three years and +26% over five), roughly average for the market.

WEAKNESSES

It's down 19% over the past year, now 26% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-25%), over three months (-15%) and so far this year (-13%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the one-year trend is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Millrose. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG72 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGRna–

Revenue, next 1Y+35%9

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+14%8

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+16%9

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+26%8

EPS growth, FY27E+6%5

EPS growth, FY28E+1%4

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 72% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 14%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.9/10

Revenue held flat over the last 3 years and is set to grow 14%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 16%/yr over five years.9/10

WATCH

Earnings are set to grow slower than sales (EPS about 6%/yr vs revenue 14%/yr), so margins are under pressure.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Reaccelerating Grower

A top-tier grower that's speeding up. The one thing to watch: earnings are set to grow slower than sales.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK13 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-25%1

3-month return-15%2

YTD return-13%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high74%4

1-year return-19%2

3-year return+26%4

5-year return+26%5

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+26% over three years and +26% over five), roughly average for the market.

WEAKNESSES

It's down 19% over the past year, now 26% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-25%), over three months (-15%) and so far this year (-13%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Millrose. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community