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Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Meritage Homes Corporation

MTHMarket cap $4.09BPrice $62.8

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorConsumer

IndustryHousehold

Builds single-family homes across the U.S. Sun Belt, targeting first-time and move-up buyers with energy-efficient designs. It was among the first major builders to make every home solar-ready standard, no upcharge required.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-9%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-2%2

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-8%1

Rev CAGR (3y)+2%2

Rev CAGR (5y)+2%2

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1-21%2

EPS Growth Y+2+16%8

EPS Growth Y+3+19%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin8%4

Net Income Margin6%4

Free Cash Flow Margin8%5

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA2.44

Efficiency

ROE6%3

ROA4%6

Earnings Stability44

GEAR+WEAK24

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)128

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)98

P/BV0.810

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd106

EV/EBIT Fwd118

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield10.1%9

Dividend Yield3.1%7

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-6%4

3 month return-19%2

YTD return-2%4

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh74%4

1 year return-7%4

Long term

3 year return+16%4

5 year return+36%5

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.67

Volatility38%5

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin8%5

Free Cash Flow Yield10.1%9

Quality

ROCE6%4

Earnings Stability44

Net Debt/EBITDA2.44

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

MTHMeritage Homes

Revenue FY25$5.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK9 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-2%2

Revenue, next 1Y-8%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+2%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+2%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-21%2

EPS growth, FY27E+16%8

EPS growth, FY28E+19%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 2%/yr from here.

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 16%/yr vs revenue 2%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 21% next year.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 91% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 2%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

Revenue is set to grow 2%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 2%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK21 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-6%4

3-month return-19%2

YTD return-2%4

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high74%4

1-year return-7%4

3-year return+16%4

5-year return+36%5

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+16% over three years and +36% over five), roughly average for the market.

It's down 7% over the past year, now 26% below its 52-week high. That is a touch behind the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-6%) and so far this year (-2%).

WEAKNESSES

The stock is underperforming over three months (-19%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the stock is underperforming over three months.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Meritage Homes Corporation. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

MTHMeritage Homes

Revenue FY25$5.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK9 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-2%2

Revenue, next 1Y-8%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+2%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+2%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-21%2

EPS growth, FY27E+16%8

EPS growth, FY28E+19%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 2%/yr from here.

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 16%/yr vs revenue 2%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 21% next year.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 91% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 2%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

Revenue is set to grow 2%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 2%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK21 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-6%4

3-month return-19%2

YTD return-2%4

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high74%4

1-year return-7%4

3-year return+16%4

5-year return+36%5

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+16% over three years and +36% over five), roughly average for the market.

It's down 7% over the past year, now 26% below its 52-week high. That is a touch behind the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-6%) and so far this year (-2%).

WEAKNESSES

The stock is underperforming over three months (-19%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Meritage Homes Corporation. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community