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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Netflix, Inc.

NFLXMarket cap $290BPrice $69.7

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorTechnology

IndustryEntertainment

Streams movies and TV shows to 270 million subscribers worldwide while producing original content that competes with Hollywood studios. Spends $15 billion annually on content, more than most countries' entire entertainment budgets.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-42%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+13%8

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+13%7

Rev CAGR (3y)+12%7

Rev CAGR (5y)+11%8

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+44%9

EPS Growth Y+2+4%5

EPS Growth Y+3+16%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin30%9

Net Income Margin28%9

Free Cash Flow Margin23%8

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA0.57

Efficiency

ROE50%10

ROA24%10

Earnings Stability88

GEAR+STRONG84

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)194

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)164

P/BV9.62

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd173

EV/EBIT Fwd184

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield3.8%5

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-9%3

3 month return-8%4

YTD return-26%2

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh56%2

1 year return-43%1

Long term

3 year return+83%7

5 year return+10%4

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.94

Volatility37%5

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin23%8

Free Cash Flow Yield3.8%5

Quality

ROCE32%10

Earnings Stability88

Net Debt/EBITDA0.57

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

NFLXNetflix

Revenue FY25$45.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG73 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+13%8

Revenue, next 1Y+13%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+12%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+11%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+44%9

EPS growth, FY27E+4%5

EPS growth, FY28E+16%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 73% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 13%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 70% of companies worldwide.8/10

Revenue is set to grow 12%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

Revenue grew 13%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 12%/yr.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 11%/yr over five years.8/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 16%/yr vs revenue 12%/yr).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK17 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-9%3

3-month return-8%4

YTD return-26%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high56%2

1-year return-43%1

3-year return+83%7

5-year return+10%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+83% over three years and +10% over five), roughly average for the market.

Returns sit at the market level over three months (-8%).

WEAKNESSES

It's down 43% over the past year, now 44% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-9%) and so far this year (-26%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the one-year trend is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Netflix. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

NFLXNetflix

Revenue FY25$45.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG73 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+13%8

Revenue, next 1Y+13%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+12%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+11%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+44%9

EPS growth, FY27E+4%5

EPS growth, FY28E+16%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 73% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 13%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 70% of companies worldwide.8/10

Revenue is set to grow 12%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

Revenue grew 13%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 12%/yr.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 11%/yr over five years.8/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 16%/yr vs revenue 12%/yr).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK17 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-9%3

3-month return-8%4

YTD return-26%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high56%2

1-year return-43%1

3-year return+83%7

5-year return+10%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+83% over three years and +10% over five), roughly average for the market.

Returns sit at the market level over three months (-8%).

WEAKNESSES

It's down 43% over the past year, now 44% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-9%) and so far this year (-26%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Netflix. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community