Loading stock…

Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Napco Security Technologies, Inc.

NSSCMarket cap $1.26BPrice $35.2

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorTechnology

IndustryElectronic Equipment

Makes locks, alarms, and access-control systems that protect schools, banks, and homes across America. It also runs a recurring-revenue business selling cellular communication services for security systems, turning hardware sales into steady subscription cash flow.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-18%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+6%5

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+8%5

Rev CAGR (3y)+6%5

Rev CAGR (5y)+5%4

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+36%9

EPS Growth Y+2+16%8

EPS Growth Y+3+4%5

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin30%9

Net Income Margin21%8

Free Cash Flow Margin29%9

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA-2.110

Efficiency

ROE24%8

ROA20%10

Earnings Stability77

GEAR+AVERAGE64

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)214

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)183

P/BV6.62

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd163

EV/EBIT Fwd175

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield4.7%6

Dividend Yield1.9%5

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-5%5

3 month return-7%4

YTD return-15%3

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh68%3

1 year return-19%3

Long term

3 year return+68%6

5 year return+69%6

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.23

Volatility40%4

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin29%9

Free Cash Flow Yield4.7%6

Quality

ROCE33%10

Earnings Stability77

Net Debt/EBITDA-2.110

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

NSSCNapco Security Technologies

Revenue FY26$202M

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE45 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+6%5

Revenue, next 1Y+8%5

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+6%5

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+5%4

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+36%9

EPS growth, FY28E+16%8

EPS growth, FY29E+4%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 16%/yr vs revenue 6%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 45% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 6%/yr over the next 3 years, in line with the market.5/10

Revenue grew 6%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 6%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 5%/yr, behind 60% of companies worldwide.4/10

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth is only about average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK30 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-5%5

3-month return-7%4

YTD return-15%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high68%3

1-year return-19%3

3-year return+68%6

5-year return+69%6

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+68% over three years and +69% over five), roughly average for the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-5%) and over three months (-7%).

WEAKNESSES

It's down 19% over the past year, now 32% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-15%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the one-year trend is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Napco Security Technologies, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community

Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

NSSCNapco Security Technologies

Revenue FY26$202M

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE45 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+6%5

Revenue, next 1Y+8%5

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+6%5

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+5%4

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+36%9

EPS growth, FY28E+16%8

EPS growth, FY29E+4%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 16%/yr vs revenue 6%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 45% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 6%/yr over the next 3 years, in line with the market.5/10

Revenue grew 6%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 6%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 5%/yr, behind 60% of companies worldwide.4/10

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth is only about average.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK30 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-5%5

3-month return-7%4

YTD return-15%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high68%3

1-year return-19%3

3-year return+68%6

5-year return+69%6

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Average long-term results. Multi-year returns are middling (+68% over three years and +69% over five), roughly average for the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-5%) and over three months (-7%).

WEAKNESSES

It's down 19% over the past year, now 32% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-15%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Napco Security Technologies, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community