Loading stock…

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.

ODFLMarket cap $36BPrice $175.6

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorIndustrials

IndustryGround Transport

Operates one of the largest trucking networks in America, moving freight between businesses with 99% on-time delivery rates. Their trucks handle the "last mile" for everything from Amazon packages to factory parts.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+28%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-4%2

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+8%5

Rev CAGR (3y)+8%6

Rev CAGR (5y)+7%6

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+21%8

EPS Growth Y+2+12%7

EPS Growth Y+3+12%7

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin25%8

Net Income Margin19%8

Free Cash Flow Margin20%8

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA-0.110

Efficiency

ROE25%9

ROA19%10

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+AVERAGE62

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)282

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)242

P/BV8.02

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd193

EV/EBIT Fwd233

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield3.1%5

Dividend Yield0.7%2

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-6%4

3 month return-19%2

YTD return+12%7

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh70%3

1 year return+22%7

Long term

3 year return-14%2

5 year return+25%5

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.04

Volatility38%5

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin20%8

Free Cash Flow Yield3.1%5

Quality

ROCE28%9

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDA-0.110

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line

Revenue FY25$5.5B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE53 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-4%2

Revenue, next 1Y+8%5

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+7%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+21%8

EPS growth, FY27E+12%7

EPS growth, FY28E+12%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 8%/yr from here.

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 12%/yr vs revenue 8%/yr).

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 53% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 7%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

WEAKNESSES

Revenue fell 4%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK20 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-6%4

3-month return-19%2

YTD return+12%7

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high70%3

1-year return+22%7

3-year return-14%2

5-year return+25%5

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming so far this year (+12%).

WATCH

It's up 22% over the past year, but 30% below its 52-week high. That is right in line with the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-14% over three years and +25% over five), behind 60% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-19%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Old Dominion. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community

Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line

Revenue FY25$5.5B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE53 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-4%2

Revenue, next 1Y+8%5

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+7%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+21%8

EPS growth, FY27E+12%7

EPS growth, FY28E+12%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 8%/yr from here.

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 12%/yr vs revenue 8%/yr).

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 53% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 7%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

WEAKNESSES

Revenue fell 4%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Margin Expander

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK20 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-6%4

3-month return-19%2

YTD return+12%7

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high70%3

1-year return+22%7

3-year return-14%2

5-year return+25%5

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming so far this year (+12%).

WATCH

It's up 22% over the past year, but 30% below its 52-week high. That is right in line with the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-14% over three years and +25% over five), behind 60% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-19%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Old Dominion. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community