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Pony AI Inc. (PONY) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Pony AI Inc.

PONYMarket cap $2.64BPrice $6.1

Country🇨🇳China

SectorTechnology

IndustrySoftware

Pony AI builds self-driving technology for robotaxis and trucks, betting China's roads will go driverless before America's regulators even finish arguing about it. Backed by Toyota, it's racing Baidu and WeRide to dominate autonomous mobility across Asia's biggest cities.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-69%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+10%7

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+66%10

Rev CAGR (3y)+99%10

Rev CAGR (5y)+105%10

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1Loss1

EPS Growth Y+2Loss1

EPS Growth Y+3Loss1

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin-214%1

Net Income Margin-118%1

Free Cash Flow Margin-222%1

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

Efficiency

ROE-12%1

ROA-6%1

Earnings Stabilityna–

GEAR+VERY WEAK8

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)na–

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)na–

P/BV1.77

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwdna–

EV/EBIT Fwdna–

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield-10.5%1

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-15%1

3 month return-11%3

YTD return-58%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh26%1

1 year return-74%1

Long term

3 year return-49%1

5 year return-49%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta3.01

Volatility69%2

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin-222%1

Free Cash Flow Yield-10.5%1

Quality

ROCE-21%1

Earnings Stabilityna–

Net Debt/EBITDAna–

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

PONYPony AI

Revenue FY25$90M

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY STRONG86 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+10%7

Revenue, next 1Y+66%10

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+99%10

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+105%10

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26ELoss1

EPS growth, FY27ELoss1

EPS growth, FY28ELoss1

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 86% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 10%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 60% of companies worldwide.7/10

Revenue is set to grow 99%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.10/10

Revenue grew 10%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to grow 99%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 105%/yr over five years.10/10

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Top-Line Rocket

A top-tier grower that's speeding up. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

PONYPony AI

Total return Current−57.7%

Price return Current−57.7%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK2 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-15%1

3-month return-11%3

YTD return-58%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high26%1

1-year return-74%1

3-year return-49%1

5-year return-49%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-49% over three years and -49% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 74% over the past year, now 74% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-15%), over three months (-11%) and so far this year (-58%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Pony AI Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

PONYPony AI

Revenue FY25$90M

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY STRONG86 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+10%7

Revenue, next 1Y+66%10

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+99%10

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+105%10

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26ELoss1

EPS growth, FY27ELoss1

EPS growth, FY28ELoss1

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 86% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 10%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 60% of companies worldwide.7/10

Revenue is set to grow 99%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.10/10

Revenue grew 10%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to grow 99%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 105%/yr over five years.10/10

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Top-Line Rocket

A top-tier grower that's speeding up. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

PONYPony AI

Total return Current−57.7%

Price return Current−57.7%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK2 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-15%1

3-month return-11%3

YTD return-58%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high26%1

1-year return-74%1

3-year return-49%1

5-year return-49%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-49% over three years and -49% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 74% over the past year, now 74% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-15%), over three months (-11%) and so far this year (-58%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Pony AI Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community