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PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

PROG Holdings, Inc.

PRGMarket cap $1.21BPrice $30.3

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorFinancials

IndustryConsumer Finance

Runs Progressive Leasing, letting shoppers with no credit lease furniture, electronics, and appliances through lease-to-own plans at thousands of retail partners. Turns "credit denied" into a sale, capturing customers traditional lenders won't touch.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-2%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-2%2

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+27%9

Rev CAGR (3y)+12%8

Rev CAGR (5y)+9%7

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+37%9

EPS Growth Y+2+11%7

EPS Growth Y+3+5%5

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin16%7

Net Income Margin6%4

Free Cash Flow Margin12%6

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA1.85

Efficiency

ROE17%7

ROA8%8

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+STRONG82

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)610

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)510

P/BV1.58

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd510

EV/EBIT Fwd710

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%9

Dividend Yield1.9%5

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-21%1

3 month return-30%1

YTD return+4%5

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh64%3

1 year return+1%5

Long term

3 year return+6%3

5 year return-29%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.23

Volatility46%4

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin12%6

Free Cash Flow Yield0.0%9

Quality

ROCE26%8

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDA1.85

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

PRGPROG Holdings

Revenue FY25$2.4B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG70 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-2%2

Revenue, next 1Y+27%9

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+12%8

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+9%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+37%9

EPS growth, FY27E+11%7

EPS growth, FY28E+5%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 70% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 12%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.8/10

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 12%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 9%/yr over five years.7/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 11%/yr vs revenue 12%/yr).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Revenue fell 2%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Reaccelerating Grower

A top-tier grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK8 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-21%1

3-month return-30%1

YTD return+4%5

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high64%3

1-year return+1%5

3-year return+6%3

5-year return-29%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

It's up 1% over the past year, but 36% below its 52-week high. That is a touch behind the market.

Returns sit at the market level so far this year (+4%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+5.6% over three years and -29% over five), behind 70% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-21%) and over three months (-30%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on PROG Holdings, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

PRGPROG Holdings

Revenue FY25$2.4B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG70 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-2%2

Revenue, next 1Y+27%9

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+12%8

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+9%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+37%9

EPS growth, FY27E+11%7

EPS growth, FY28E+5%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 70% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 12%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.8/10

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 12%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 9%/yr over five years.7/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 11%/yr vs revenue 12%/yr).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Revenue fell 2%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Reaccelerating Grower

A top-tier grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK8 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-21%1

3-month return-30%1

YTD return+4%5

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high64%3

1-year return+1%5

3-year return+6%3

5-year return-29%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

It's up 1% over the past year, but 36% below its 52-week high. That is a touch behind the market.

Returns sit at the market level so far this year (+4%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+5.6% over three years and -29% over five), behind 70% of the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-21%) and over three months (-30%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on PROG Holdings, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community