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Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Peloton Interactive, Inc.

PTONMarket cap $2.13BPrice $4.8

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorConsumer

IndustryLeisure Products

Sells connected fitness bikes and treadmills bundled with subscription-based workout classes, turning home cardio into a habit-forming digital service. It practically invented the at-home fitness streaming category, then watched gyms reopen and demand crash overnight.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-35%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-4%2

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-3%2

Rev CAGR (3y)-1%1

Rev CAGR (5y)+3%2

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+81%10

EPS Growth Y+2-63%1

EPS Growth Y+3Loss1

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin9%4

Net Income Margin3%3

Free Cash Flow Margin15%7

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA1.65

Efficiency

ROEna–

ROA3%5

Earnings Stability44

GEAR+VERY WEAK5

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)185

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)na–

P/BVna–

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd59

EV/EBIT Fwd108

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield17.7%10

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-4%6

3 month return-16%2

YTD return-21%2

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh59%2

1 year return-34%2

Long term

3 year return-5%2

5 year return-94%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta2.01

Volatility62%2

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin15%7

Free Cash Flow Yield17.7%10

Quality

ROCE15%7

Earnings Stability44

Net Debt/EBITDA1.65

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

PTONPeloton Interactive

Revenue FY26$2.4B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK4 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-4%2

Revenue, next 1Y-3%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-1%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+3%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+81%10

EPS growth, FY28E-63%1

EPS growth, FY29ELoss1

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Revenue fell 4%/yr over the last 3 years, and it is still set to shrink 0.9%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 9%/yr vs revenue -0.9%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 63% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 96% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 4%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

Revenue is set to shrink 0.9%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 3%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business whose decline is easing. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK8 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-4%6

3-month return-16%2

YTD return-21%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high59%2

1-year return-34%2

3-year return-5%2

5-year return-94%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-4%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-5.1% over three years and -94% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 34% over the past year, now 41% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-16%) and so far this year (-21%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Peloton Interactive, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

PTONPeloton Interactive

Revenue FY26$2.4B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK4 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-4%2

Revenue, next 1Y-3%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-1%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+3%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+81%10

EPS growth, FY28E-63%1

EPS growth, FY29ELoss1

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Revenue fell 4%/yr over the last 3 years, and it is still set to shrink 0.9%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 9%/yr vs revenue -0.9%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 63% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 96% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 4%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

Revenue is set to shrink 0.9%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 3%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business whose decline is easing. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK8 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-4%6

3-month return-16%2

YTD return-21%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high59%2

1-year return-34%2

3-year return-5%2

5-year return-94%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-4%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-5.1% over three years and -94% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 34% over the past year, now 41% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-16%) and so far this year (-21%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Peloton Interactive, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community