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Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated today

Papa John's International, Inc.

PZZAMarket cap $0.64BPrice $19.5

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorConsumer

IndustryHotels & Leisure

Makes and delivers pizza through thousands of franchised and company-owned locations worldwide. Built its entire brand on the "Better Ingredients, Better Pizza" promise, yet still fights Domino's and Pizza Hut for scraps of market share.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-61%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-1%3

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-9%1

Rev CAGR (3y)-4%1

Rev CAGR (5y)+7%6

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+25%8

EPS Growth Y+2+21%8

EPS Growth Y+3+17%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin5%3

Net Income Margin1%2

Free Cash Flow Margin1%3

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA3.72

Efficiency

ROEna–

ROA3%5

Earnings Stability77

GEAR+VERY WEAK8

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)165

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)126

P/BVna–

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd97

EV/EBIT Fwd175

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield3.8%5

Dividend Yield9.5%10

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-10%2

3 month return-42%1

YTD return-48%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh36%1

1 year return-52%1

Long term

3 year return-65%1

5 year return-82%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.04

Volatility53%3

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin1%3

Free Cash Flow Yield3.8%5

Quality

ROCE19%8

Earnings Stability77

Net Debt/EBITDA3.72

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

PZZAPapa John's International

Revenue FY25$2.1B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK22 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-1%3

Revenue, next 1Y-9%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-4%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+7%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+25%8

EPS growth, FY27E+21%8

EPS growth, FY28E+17%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 21%/yr vs revenue -4%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

Over five years revenue is set to grow 7%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 78% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 0.8%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

Revenue is set to shrink 4%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

Revenue fell 0.8%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to shrink 4%/yr from here.

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business heading into decline. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK1 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-10%2

3-month return-42%1

YTD return-48%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high36%1

1-year return-52%1

3-year return-65%1

5-year return-82%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-65% over three years and -82% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 52% over the past year, now 64% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-10%), over three months (-42%) and so far this year (-48%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Papa John's International, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

PZZAPapa John's International

Revenue FY25$2.1B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK22 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-1%3

Revenue, next 1Y-9%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-4%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+7%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+25%8

EPS growth, FY27E+21%8

EPS growth, FY28E+17%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 21%/yr vs revenue -4%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

Over five years revenue is set to grow 7%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 78% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 0.8%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

Revenue is set to shrink 4%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

Revenue fell 0.8%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to shrink 4%/yr from here.

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business heading into decline. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK1 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-10%2

3-month return-42%1

YTD return-48%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high36%1

1-year return-52%1

3-year return-65%1

5-year return-82%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-65% over three years and -82% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 52% over the past year, now 64% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-10%), over three months (-42%) and so far this year (-48%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Papa John's International, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community