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Sunrun Inc. (RUN) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Sunrun Inc.

RUNMarket cap $1.87BPrice $7.8

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorIndustrials

IndustryElectrical Equipment

Installs and finances residential solar systems and battery storage, letting homeowners go solar with little to no money down. It's the largest dedicated residential solar company in the US, powering homes while banks and utilities take on the risk.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-60%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+8%6

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+9%6

Rev CAGR (3y)+8%6

Rev CAGR (5y)+8%7

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1-9%3

EPS Growth Y+2-37%2

EPS Growth Y+3-9%3

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin3%2

Net Income Margin12%6

Free Cash Flow Margin-64%1

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA16.41

Efficiency

ROE12%6

ROA-4%1

Earnings Stability44

GEAR+VERY WEAK11

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)610

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)89

P/BV0.510

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd242

EV/EBIT Fwdna–

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield-118.2%1

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-13%2

3 month return-36%1

YTD return-58%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh35%1

1 year return-60%1

Long term

3 year return-26%2

5 year return-82%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.32

Volatility82%1

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin-64%1

Free Cash Flow Yield-118.2%1

Quality

ROCE0%2

Earnings Stability44

Net Debt/EBITDA16.41

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

RUNSunrun

Revenue FY25$3.0B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE54 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 1Y+9%6

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+8%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-9%3

EPS growth, FY27E-37%2

EPS growth, FY28E-9%3

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over five years.7/10

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 54% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Revenue grew 8%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 8%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

Earnings are set to fall even as revenue grows (EPS about -9%/yr vs revenue 8%/yr).

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower. The one thing to watch: earnings are forecast to fall.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK2 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-13%2

3-month return-36%1

YTD return-58%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high35%1

1-year return-60%1

3-year return-26%2

5-year return-82%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-26% over three years and -82% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 60% over the past year, now 65% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-13%), over three months (-36%) and so far this year (-58%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Sunrun Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

RUNSunrun

Revenue FY25$3.0B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE54 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 1Y+9%6

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+8%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+8%7

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-9%3

EPS growth, FY27E-37%2

EPS growth, FY28E-9%3

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over five years.7/10

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 54% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 8%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Revenue grew 8%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 8%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

Earnings are set to fall even as revenue grows (EPS about -9%/yr vs revenue 8%/yr).

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower. The one thing to watch: earnings are forecast to fall.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK2 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-13%2

3-month return-36%1

YTD return-58%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high35%1

1-year return-60%1

3-year return-26%2

5-year return-82%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-26% over three years and -82% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 60% over the past year, now 65% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-13%), over three months (-36%) and so far this year (-58%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Sunrun Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community