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Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Spotify Technology S.A.

SPOTMarket cap $105BPrice $512.9

Country🇸🇪Sweden

SectorTechnology

IndustryEntertainment

Streams music and podcasts to 500+ million users across 180+ countries through subscription and ad-supported models. Controls 31% of global music streaming, making it the world's largest audio platform by active users.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-24%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+17%9

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+8%6

Rev CAGR (3y)+14%8

Rev CAGR (5y)+12%8

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+14%7

EPS Growth Y+2+25%8

EPS Growth Y+3+23%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin15%6

Net Income Margin18%8

Free Cash Flow Margin18%8

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA-2.410

Efficiency

ROE44%10

ROA25%10

Earnings Stability66

GEAR+STRONG84

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)332

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)242

P/BV11.21

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd291

EV/EBIT Fwd302

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield3.5%5

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-3%6

3 month return+6%8

YTD return-12%3

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh73%4

1 year return-24%2

Long term

3 year return+220%9

5 year return+120%8

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.95

Volatility45%4

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin18%8

Free Cash Flow Yield3.5%5

Quality

ROCE33%10

Earnings Stability66

Net Debt/EBITDA-2.410

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

SPOTSpotify Technology S.A.

Revenue FY25$20.1B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG78 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+17%9

Revenue, next 1Y+8%6

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+14%8

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+12%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+14%7

EPS growth, FY27E+25%8

EPS growth, FY28E+23%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 78% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 17%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

Revenue is set to grow 14%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 12%/yr over five years.8/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 23%/yr vs revenue 14%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

Revenue grew 17%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 14%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

SPOTSpotify Technology S.A.

Total return Current352%

Price return Current352%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE60 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-3%6

3-month return+6%8

YTD return-12%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high73%4

1-year return-24%2

3-year return+220%9

5-year return+120%8

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Magnificent long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +220% over three years and +120% over five, ahead of 80% of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+6%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-3%).

WEAKNESSES

It's down 24% over the past year, now 27% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-12%).

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Compounder

Dependable multi-year returns with a calmer near-term tape. A reliable long-term trend rather than a short-term breakout. The one thing to watch: the one-year trend is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Spotify. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

SPOTSpotify Technology S.A.

Revenue FY25$20.1B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG78 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+17%9

Revenue, next 1Y+8%6

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+14%8

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+12%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+14%7

EPS growth, FY27E+25%8

EPS growth, FY28E+23%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 78% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 17%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

Revenue is set to grow 14%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.7/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 12%/yr over five years.8/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 23%/yr vs revenue 14%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

Revenue grew 17%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 14%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

SPOTSpotify Technology S.A.

Total return Current352%

Price return Current352%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE60 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-3%6

3-month return+6%8

YTD return-12%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high73%4

1-year return-24%2

3-year return+220%9

5-year return+120%8

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Magnificent long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +220% over three years and +120% over five, ahead of 80% of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+6%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-3%).

WEAKNESSES

It's down 24% over the past year, now 27% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-12%).

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Compounder

Dependable multi-year returns with a calmer near-term tape. A reliable long-term trend rather than a short-term breakout. The one thing to watch: the one-year trend is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Spotify. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community