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TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

TransDigm Group Incorporated

TDGMarket cap $61BPrice $1096.2

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Makes highly specialized aircraft parts that are so critical and hard to replace that airlines pay premium prices with little negotiation. Controls niche markets where switching suppliers would cost millions and months of recertification.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-13%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+18%9

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+19%8

Rev CAGR (3y)+12%7

Rev CAGR (5y)+11%8

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+34%9

EPS Growth Y+2+17%8

EPS Growth Y+3+15%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin47%10

Net Income Margin21%8

Free Cash Flow Margin19%8

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA6.01

Efficiency

ROEna–

ROA9%8

Earnings Stability1010

GEAR+STRONG80

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)233

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)193

P/BVna–

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd173

EV/EBIT Fwd194

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield3.2%5

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-4%5

3 month return-15%2

YTD return-18%2

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh75%4

1 year return-15%3

Long term

3 year return+51%6

5 year return+105%7

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.85

Volatility28%8

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin19%8

Free Cash Flow Yield3.2%5

Quality

ROCE21%9

Earnings Stability1010

Net Debt/EBITDA6.01

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

TDGTransDigm Group

Revenue FY25$8.8B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG78 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+18%9

Revenue, next 1Y+19%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+12%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+11%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+34%9

EPS growth, FY27E+17%8

EPS growth, FY28E+15%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 78% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 18%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

Revenue is set to grow 12%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.8/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 11%/yr over five years.8/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 17%/yr vs revenue 12%/yr).

WATCH

Revenue grew 18%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 12%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK30 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-4%5

3-month return-15%2

YTD return-18%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high75%4

1-year return-15%3

3-year return+51%6

5-year return+105%7

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +51% over three years and +105% over five, ahead of 60% of the market.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-4%).

WEAKNESSES

It's down 15% over the past year, now 25% below its 52-week high. That is a touch behind the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-15%) and so far this year (-18%).

BOTTOM LINE

Outperformer in a Drawdown

A proven multi-year compounder now in a meaningful pullback well below its 52-week high. This is the classic fork: either a buy-the-dip in an intact uptrend, or the early stage of a trend change. Wait for the short-term slide to stabilise before adding. The one thing to watch: the one-year trend is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on TransDigm. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

TDGTransDigm Group

Revenue FY25$8.8B

GROWTH RATING↗

STRONG78 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+18%9

Revenue, next 1Y+19%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+12%7

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+11%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+34%9

EPS growth, FY27E+17%8

EPS growth, FY28E+15%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 78% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 18%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

Revenue is set to grow 12%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.8/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 11%/yr over five years.8/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 17%/yr vs revenue 12%/yr).

WATCH

Revenue grew 18%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 12%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Elite Compounder

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK30 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-4%5

3-month return-15%2

YTD return-18%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high75%4

1-year return-15%3

3-year return+51%6

5-year return+105%7

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +51% over three years and +105% over five, ahead of 60% of the market.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-4%).

WEAKNESSES

It's down 15% over the past year, now 25% below its 52-week high. That is a touch behind the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-15%) and so far this year (-18%).

BOTTOM LINE

Outperformer in a Drawdown

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on TransDigm. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community