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TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated today

TransMedics Group, Inc.

TMDXMarket cap $2.74BPrice $79.0

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorHealthcare

IndustryHealthcare Equipment

Keeps donor organs alive and beating outside the body using its Organ Care System, extending viability for hours instead of minutes. This lets surgeons transplant hearts, lungs, and livers that would otherwise be discarded, saving thousands of lives yearly.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-33%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+86%10

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+23%8

Rev CAGR (3y)+19%9

Rev CAGR (5y)+14%9

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1-69%1

EPS Growth Y+2+54%9

EPS Growth Y+3+60%10

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin12%5

Net Income Margin23%8

Free Cash Flow Margin12%6

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA3.23

Efficiency

ROE36%10

ROA13%9

Earnings Stability44

GEAR+AVERAGE57

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)401

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)193

P/BV5.33

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd192

EV/EBIT Fwd362

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield2.9%5

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-9%3

3 month return+9%8

YTD return-35%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh51%1

1 year return-30%2

Long term

3 year return+64%6

5 year return+188%9

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.04

Volatility59%2

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin12%6

Free Cash Flow Yield2.9%5

Quality

ROCE7%4

Earnings Stability44

Net Debt/EBITDA3.23

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

TMDXTransMedics Group

Revenue FY25$605M

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY STRONG88 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+86%10

Revenue, next 1Y+23%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+19%9

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+14%9

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-69%1

EPS growth, FY27E+54%9

EPS growth, FY28E+60%10

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 88% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 86%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

Revenue is set to grow 19%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.9/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 14%/yr over five years.9/10

WATCH

Revenue grew 86%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 19%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 54%/yr vs revenue 19%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 69% next year.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Maturing Grower

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE35 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-9%3

3-month return+9%8

YTD return-35%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high51%1

1-year return-30%2

3-year return+64%6

5-year return+188%9

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +64% over three years and +188% over five, ahead of 70% of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+9%).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

It's down 30% over the past year, now 49% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-9%) and so far this year (-35%).

BOTTOM LINE

Outperformer in a Drawdown

A proven multi-year compounder now in a meaningful pullback well below its 52-week high. This is the classic fork: either a buy-the-dip in an intact uptrend, or the early stage of a trend change. Wait for the short-term slide to stabilise before adding. The one thing to watch: the one-year trend is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on TransMedics Group, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

TMDXTransMedics Group

Revenue FY25$605M

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY STRONG88 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+86%10

Revenue, next 1Y+23%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+19%9

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+14%9

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-69%1

EPS growth, FY27E+54%9

EPS growth, FY28E+60%10

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

It out-grows 88% of companies worldwide.

Revenue grew 86%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

Revenue is set to grow 19%/yr over the next 3 years, ahead of most of the market.9/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 14%/yr over five years.9/10

WATCH

Revenue grew 86%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 19%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 54%/yr vs revenue 19%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 69% next year.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Maturing Grower

A top-tier grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE35 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-9%3

3-month return+9%8

YTD return-35%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high51%1

1-year return-30%2

3-year return+64%6

5-year return+188%9

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +64% over three years and +188% over five, ahead of 70% of the market.

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+9%).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

It's down 30% over the past year, now 49% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-9%) and so far this year (-35%).

BOTTOM LINE

Outperformer in a Drawdown

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on TransMedics Group, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community