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Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Toll Brothers, Inc.

TOLMarket cap $13BPrice $138.0

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorConsumer

IndustryHousehold

Builds luxury homes for wealthy Americans, dominating the high-end market where competitors rarely tread. Buyers customize nearly everything, from floor plans to finishes, making Toll Brothers more homebuilder-meets-architect than typical suburban developer.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return+2%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+2%4

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-1%2

Rev CAGR (3y)+2%2

Rev CAGR (5y)+7%6

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1-3%3

EPS Growth Y+2+5%5

EPS Growth Y+3+9%6

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin15%6

Net Income Margin11%6

Free Cash Flow Margin10%6

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA1.16

Efficiency

ROE14%6

ROA8%8

Earnings Stability77

GEAR+AVERAGE61

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)108

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)98

P/BV1.58

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd78

EV/EBIT Fwd99

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield8.6%9

Dividend Yield0.8%2

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-3%6

3 month return-9%4

YTD return+3%5

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh82%6

1 year return+5%5

Long term

3 year return+99%7

5 year return+154%8

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.94

Volatility34%6

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin10%6

Free Cash Flow Yield8.6%9

Quality

ROCE14%7

Earnings Stability77

Net Debt/EBITDA1.16

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

TOLToll Brothers

Revenue FY25$11.0B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK23 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+2%4

Revenue, next 1Y-1%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+2%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+7%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-3%3

EPS growth, FY27E+5%5

EPS growth, FY28E+9%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Revenue grew 2%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 2%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 7%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 5%/yr vs revenue 2%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 3% next year.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 77% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 2%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE55 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-3%6

3-month return-9%4

YTD return+3%5

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high82%6

1-year return+5%5

3-year return+99%7

5-year return+154%8

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +99% over three years and +154% over five, ahead of 70% of the market.

WATCH

It's up 5% over the past year, but 18% below its 52-week high. That is a touch ahead of the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-3%), over three months (-9%) and so far this year (+3%).

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Compounder

Dependable multi-year returns with a calmer near-term tape. A reliable long-term trend rather than a short-term breakout.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Toll Brothers, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

TOLToll Brothers

Revenue FY25$11.0B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK23 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+2%4

Revenue, next 1Y-1%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+2%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+7%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-3%3

EPS growth, FY27E+5%5

EPS growth, FY28E+9%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Revenue grew 2%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep growing around 2%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 7%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 5%/yr vs revenue 2%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 3% next year.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 77% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 2%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE55 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-3%6

3-month return-9%4

YTD return+3%5

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high82%6

1-year return+5%5

3-year return+99%7

5-year return+154%8

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong long-term results. Long-term holders have seen +99% over three years and +154% over five, ahead of 70% of the market.

WATCH

It's up 5% over the past year, but 18% below its 52-week high. That is a touch ahead of the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-3%), over three months (-9%) and so far this year (+3%).

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Compounder

Dependable multi-year returns with a calmer near-term tape. A reliable long-term trend rather than a short-term breakout.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Toll Brothers, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community