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Trex Company, Inc. (TREX) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Trex Company, Inc.

TREXMarket cap $4.46BPrice $43.8

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorIndustrials

IndustryBuilding Products

Turns reclaimed wood scraps and plastic film into composite decking, making it the go-to alternative to traditional lumber. It's built a category by recycling roughly 400 million pounds of plastic annually, mostly from grocery bags.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-14%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+2%4

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+6%4

Rev CAGR (3y)+6%5

Rev CAGR (5y)+15%9

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1-0%3

EPS Growth Y+2+10%6

EPS Growth Y+3+14%7

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin20%7

Net Income Margin15%7

Free Cash Flow Margin17%7

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA0.96

Efficiency

ROE18%7

ROA11%9

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+AVERAGE43

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)233

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)203

P/BV4.44

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd144

EV/EBIT Fwd194

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield4.7%6

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-4%5

3 month return-4%5

YTD return+25%8

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh81%5

1 year return-18%3

Long term

3 year return-25%2

5 year return-58%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.42

Volatility54%3

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin17%7

Free Cash Flow Yield4.7%6

Quality

ROCE21%9

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDA0.96

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

TREXTrex Company

Revenue FY25$1.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE54 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+2%4

Revenue, next 1Y+6%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+6%5

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+15%9

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-0%3

EPS growth, FY27E+10%6

EPS growth, FY28E+14%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 2%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to grow 6%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 15%/yr over five years.9/10

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 54% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 6%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 10%/yr vs revenue 6%/yr).

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's speeding up.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK20 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-4%5

3-month return-4%5

YTD return+25%8

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high81%5

1-year return-18%3

3-year return-25%2

5-year return-58%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming so far this year (+25%).

WATCH

It's down 18% over the past year, now 19% below its 52-week high. That is a touch behind the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-4%) and over three months (-4%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-25% over three years and -58% over five), behind 80% of the market.

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Trex Company, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

TREXTrex Company

Revenue FY25$1.2B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE54 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+2%4

Revenue, next 1Y+6%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+6%5

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+15%9

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-0%3

EPS growth, FY27E+10%6

EPS growth, FY28E+14%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 2%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to grow 6%/yr from here.

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 15%/yr over five years.9/10

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 54% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 6%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 10%/yr vs revenue 6%/yr).

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Steady Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's speeding up.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK20 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-4%5

3-month return-4%5

YTD return+25%8

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high81%5

1-year return-18%3

3-year return-25%2

5-year return-58%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming so far this year (+25%).

WATCH

It's down 18% over the past year, now 19% below its 52-week high. That is a touch behind the market.

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-4%) and over three months (-4%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-25% over three years and -58% over five), behind 80% of the market.

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Trex Company, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community