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The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

The Trade Desk, Inc.

TTDMarket cap $5.72BPrice $12.1

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorTechnology

IndustryMedia

Runs the largest independent platform for buying digital ads, letting brands bid on ad space across streaming TV, mobile, and web outside Google and Amazon's walled gardens. Powers ad campaigns for most major global advertisers without ever owning the content itself.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-76%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+22%9

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-6%1

Rev CAGR (3y)-2%1

Rev CAGR (5y)+1%1

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+26%8

EPS Growth Y+2-4%3

EPS Growth Y+3+8%6

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin20%7

Net Income Margin14%7

Free Cash Flow Margin29%9

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA-1.310

Efficiency

ROE15%7

ROA7%7

Earnings Stability77

GEAR+AVERAGE45

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)118

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)107

P/BV2.26

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd69

EV/EBIT Fwd204

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield15.1%10

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-14%2

3 month return-37%1

YTD return-68%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh22%1

1 year return-78%1

Long term

3 year return-85%1

5 year return-83%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.94

Volatility57%2

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin29%9

Free Cash Flow Yield15.1%10

Quality

ROCE20%9

Earnings Stability77

Net Debt/EBITDA-1.310

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

TTDThe Trade Desk

Revenue FY25$2.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK9 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+22%9

Revenue, next 1Y-6%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-2%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+1%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+26%8

EPS growth, FY27E-4%3

EPS growth, FY28E+8%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 22%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

WATCH

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 8%/yr vs revenue -2%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 4% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 91% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to shrink 2%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Revenue grew 22%/yr over the last 3 years, but it is set to shrink 2%/yr from here.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 1%/yr, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business heading into decline. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK1 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-14%2

3-month return-37%1

YTD return-68%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high22%1

1-year return-78%1

3-year return-85%1

5-year return-83%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-85% over three years and -83% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 78% over the past year, now 78% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-14%), over three months (-37%) and so far this year (-68%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Trade Desk. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

TTDThe Trade Desk

Revenue FY25$2.9B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK9 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+22%9

Revenue, next 1Y-6%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-2%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+1%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+26%8

EPS growth, FY27E-4%3

EPS growth, FY28E+8%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 22%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

WATCH

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 8%/yr vs revenue -2%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 4% in year 2.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 91% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to shrink 2%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Revenue grew 22%/yr over the last 3 years, but it is set to shrink 2%/yr from here.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 1%/yr, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business heading into decline. The one thing to watch: forward revenue growth trails the market.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK1 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-14%2

3-month return-37%1

YTD return-68%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high22%1

1-year return-78%1

3-year return-85%1

5-year return-83%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-85% over three years and -83% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 78% over the past year, now 78% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over the past month (-14%), over three months (-37%) and so far this year (-68%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Trade Desk. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community