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Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.

WMSMarket cap $9.51BPrice $126.1

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorIndustrials

IndustryBuilding Products

Makes plastic pipes and water management systems that replace old-school concrete infrastructure underground. Its recycled-material pipes now handle stormwater for thousands of construction projects, quietly making it one of the largest plastic recyclers in North America.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-10%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-0%3

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+13%7

Rev CAGR (3y)+9%6

Rev CAGR (5y)+7%6

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+20%8

EPS Growth Y+2+14%7

EPS Growth Y+3+4%5

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin23%8

Net Income Margin14%7

Free Cash Flow Margin17%7

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA1.65

Efficiency

ROE26%9

ROA11%9

Earnings Stability77

GEAR+AVERAGE67

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)194

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)164

P/BV5.33

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd116

EV/EBIT Fwd156

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield5.8%7

Dividend Yield0.6%2

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-6%5

3 month return-13%3

YTD return-13%3

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh71%4

1 year return-10%3

Long term

3 year return+10%3

5 year return+16%4

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.13

Volatility37%5

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin17%7

Free Cash Flow Yield5.8%7

Quality

ROCE20%9

Earnings Stability77

Net Debt/EBITDA1.65

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

WMSAdvanced Drainage Systems

Revenue FY26$3.1B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE56 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-0%3

Revenue, next 1Y+13%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+9%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+7%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+20%8

EPS growth, FY28E+14%7

EPS growth, FY29E+4%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 9%/yr from here.

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 14%/yr vs revenue 9%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 56% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 9%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 7%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

WEAKNESSES

Revenue held flat over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Reaccelerating Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK20 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-6%5

3-month return-13%3

YTD return-13%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high71%4

1-year return-10%3

3-year return+10%3

5-year return+16%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+9.6% over three years and +16% over five), behind 60% of the market.

It's down 10% over the past year, now 29% below its 52-week high. That is a touch behind the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-13%) and so far this year (-13%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

WMSAdvanced Drainage Systems

Revenue FY26$3.1B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE56 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-0%3

Revenue, next 1Y+13%7

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+9%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+7%6

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+20%8

EPS growth, FY28E+14%7

EPS growth, FY29E+4%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 9%/yr from here.

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 14%/yr vs revenue 9%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 56% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 9%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 7%/yr, ahead of 50% of companies worldwide.6/10

WEAKNESSES

Revenue held flat over the last 3 years, behind 70% of companies worldwide.3/10

BOTTOM LINE

Reaccelerating Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK20 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-6%5

3-month return-13%3

YTD return-13%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high71%4

1-year return-10%3

3-year return+10%3

5-year return+16%4

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-6%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+9.6% over three years and +16% over five), behind 60% of the market.

It's down 10% over the past year, now 29% below its 52-week high. That is a touch behind the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-13%) and so far this year (-13%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community