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Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated today

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.

YMMMarket cap $8.76BPrice $8.4

Country🇨🇳China

SectorIndustrials

IndustryGround Transport

Runs China's largest digital freight-matching platform, connecting truckers with shippers the way Uber connects drivers with riders. Over 1 billion tons of cargo get booked through its app annually, making it the backbone of China's trucking industry.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-32%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+22%9

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+5%4

Rev CAGR (3y)+7%6

Rev CAGR (5y)+14%8

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+23%8

EPS Growth Y+2+17%8

EPS Growth Y+3+16%8

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin34%9

Net Income Margin33%9

Free Cash Flow Margin51%10

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA-5.310

Efficiency

ROE11%5

ROA10%8

Earnings Stability1010

GEAR+VERY STRONG98

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)108

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)89

P/BV1.58

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd510

EV/EBIT Fwd510

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield11.2%9

Dividend Yield3.8%8

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-2%6

3 month return+1%7

YTD return-20%2

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh62%2

1 year return-35%1

Long term

3 year return+23%4

5 year return-45%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.13

Volatility37%5

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin51%10

Free Cash Flow Yield11.2%9

Quality

ROCE10%6

Earnings Stability1010

Net Debt/EBITDA-5.310

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

YMMFull Truck Alliance Co

Revenue FY25$1.8B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE65 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+22%9

Revenue, next 1Y+5%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+7%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+14%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+23%8

EPS growth, FY27E+17%8

EPS growth, FY28E+16%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 22%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 14%/yr over five years.8/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 17%/yr vs revenue 7%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 65% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 7%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Revenue grew 22%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 7%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Maturing Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

YMMFull Truck Alliance Co

Total return Current3.6%

Price return Current0.8%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK21 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-2%6

3-month return+1%7

YTD return-20%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high62%2

1-year return-35%1

3-year return+23%4

5-year return-45%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+1%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-2%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+23% over three years and -45% over five), behind 70% of the market.

It's down 35% over the past year, now 38% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-20%).

BOTTOM LINE

Weak Tape

Returns across short and long horizons rank poorly versus the market. Momentum offers no support here; the case has to come from other factors. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

YMMFull Truck Alliance Co

Revenue FY25$1.8B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE65 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+22%9

Revenue, next 1Y+5%4

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+7%6

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+14%8

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+23%8

EPS growth, FY27E+17%8

EPS growth, FY28E+16%8

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 22%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 80% of companies worldwide.9/10

The runway holds up: revenue is set to grow 14%/yr over five years.8/10

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 17%/yr vs revenue 7%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 65% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 7%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Revenue grew 22%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 7%/yr.

WEAKNESSES

None flagged.

BOTTOM LINE

Maturing Grower

A middle-of-the-pack grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the pace is cooling.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

YMMFull Truck Alliance Co

Total return Current3.6%

Price return Current0.8%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK21 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-2%6

3-month return+1%7

YTD return-20%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high62%2

1-year return-35%1

3-year return+23%4

5-year return-45%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+1%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-2%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (+23% over three years and -45% over five), behind 70% of the market.

It's down 35% over the past year, now 38% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-20%).

BOTTOM LINE

Weak Tape

Returns across short and long horizons rank poorly versus the market. Momentum offers no support here; the case has to come from other factors. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community