← Watchtower
May 25, 2026

A year ago, Alphabet was called the "loser" of the AI race.

Today, only Nvidia has a higher market cap. $GOOGL

In early 2025, the consensus was that ChatGPT would eat Google Search. The stock dropped 25%. Most analysts wrote it off.

Here's what they missed:

→ AI token usage on Google services exploded 6.7x in 12 months, from 480 trillion to 3.2 quadrillion per month

→ The Gemini app reached 900 million monthly active users

→ Anthropic and Apple Intelligence run on Google's own chips, not Nvidia's

→ Alphabet added $1 trillion in market cap since January alone

Meanwhile, OpenAI is preparing an IPO at a $1 trillion valuation while losing billions. Alphabet generates $73 billion in free cash flow per year and is projected to double EBITDA to $356 billion by 2028.