← Watchtower
July 16, 2026

The #1 Momentum trade in the S&P 500 right now is not semiconductors, it is oil refiners.

🛢️ Marathon $MPC sits at a Momentum score of 100 and +86% YTD.
🛢️ Valero $VLO 99 (+82%)

🛢️ Phillips 66 $PSX 97 (+54%)

That lines up with the crack spread printing $67.84, more than 5x the multi-decade average near $13.

After Ukrainian drone strikes hit Russian refining capacity, the global product shortage got worse. Diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel prices are rising worldwide, and US refiners are getting a huge benefit.