12 posts from 50 reports.
Goldman priced each of Amazon's businesses separately, the way a buyer would if the company were sold in pieces.
The cloud gets the top price because it grows fastest: Goldman expects its revenue to rise about 40% in 2027.
The online store in North America adds another $836bn in Goldman's math.
So at today's price, investors pay for the cloud and get the store almost for free. That only holds while the cloud keeps growing this fast.
Profits are just as concentrated.
Goldman Sachs expects Micron and Nvidia alone to deliver a third of the index's profit growth this quarter.
The index as a whole should grow profits about 27%.
The typical company in it grows just 9%.
So a big part of what you buy with the S&P 500 is the memory-chip boom. Investors pay only 6 times Micron's expected earnings, a sign they think those profits won't last.
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When a company's lenders earn more than its shareholders, something has to give.
Food makers like Campbell's and General Mills took on more debt than they planned and pay out most of their profit as dividends, JPMorgan notes.
Each time an old bond comes due, they now replace it at much higher rates, which eats into profit.
The easiest place to find that money is the dividend. General Mills now yields 7.7% after falling a third in a year, a sign the market already doubts it.
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Goldman Sachs finds that almost a fifth of this year's demand came from battery makers refilling their stockpiles.
That buying is ending.
New mines add about a third more supply next year, so Goldman sees the shortage turning into a glut.
The stocks already trade on next year's glut. Albemarle costs under 10 times expected earnings.
Fees from mergers and new listings slowed over the summer.
Jefferies expects investment-banking revenue at the eight biggest global banks to drop 8% from a year ago, with Bank of America down 27%.
The giant AI listings that would bring the fees back are slipping into 2027.
Goldman Sachs is already 23% below its high. Jefferies prefers Morgan Stanley for now, because its wealth-management arm earns steady fees whatever happens to deals.
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Adyen handles card payments for big brands.
Its shares have lost 42% in a year.
The fear is that AI shopping assistants will pay through rival wallets and cut Adyen out.
Adyen's answer is to work with the assistants rather than against them. As long as they still pay by card, the payment still runs through Adyen.
That's 12 times expected earnings, with a 4% dividend.
Goldman Sachs thinks the market is missing a shift: CATL is starting to sell complete power-storage systems, which earn far more than battery cells alone.
These are the giant batteries that power grids use to store electricity.
Goldman added CATL to its list of top Asian picks. The risk is competition from companies that already build these systems.
Goldman Sachs expects that market to grow 23-fold by 2030, because each new generation of AI chips draws more power and more servers get a backup.
It just added Panasonic to its list of top Asian picks.
The shares are already up 134% this year.
Goldman's target still sits 38% higher, betting the battery business outgrows what other analysts expect. The risk is fewer servers fitted with backups, or price cuts on them.
About a third of next year's data-centre spending will be paid for with borrowed money, in Goldman's math.
Borrowing is cheaper than selling shares: debt costs about 5% after tax, while shareholders expect returns above 11%, BofA estimates.
Even SpaceX is raising $40bn against its Nvidia chips, only months after going public.
The weak spot is Oracle: Morgan Stanley counts about $65bn of loans for its data centres that don't show up in its bond figures. Its shares have halved in a year.
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Marvell makes the chips that connect AI processors to each other, plus custom chips designed for a single customer.
Those custom chips do much of the lifting: Marvell sees them bringing in $30bn by 2031.
The shares are up 235% this year, so much of the plan is already in the price. Goldman Sachs liked the plan but rates the stock Neutral, with a target below today's price. Losing one big custom-chip customer would hurt most.
When a private AI company raises money at a higher price, its big investors book the increase as profit, even though no cash comes in.
Deutsche Bank counts $42bn of such gains at Amazon alone in the second quarter.
Strip out the one-offs and the quarter's profit growth falls from 53% to 34%.
Goldman doesn't expect the paper gains to repeat this quarter. On last quarter's profits, the index looks cheaper than it really is.
The rest is price: the average ticket costs 42% more than in 2019, Goldman Sachs' tracker shows.
Ticketmaster's app downloads fell 26% from a year ago in September.
StubHub's rose 50%.
This year a federal jury also found that Live Nation-Ticketmaster broke antitrust law.
With ticket prices now flat on last year, Live Nation has to grow by selling more tickets.
