At 19.2x forward earnings, the S&P 500 trades in line with its 10-year average (19.0x) and below its 5-year average (19.9x). The 10-year yield has held above 4.50% since Jul 10, 2026, and the multiple has compressed from 20.5x to 19.2x.
Sources: Investment Bastion, FactSet Earnings Insight, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Latest reading Sep 25, 2026.
The forward P/E is the S&P 500 price divided by the bottom-up consensus estimate of earnings per share for the next 12 months. Each point is the value FactSet reports in its weekly Earnings Insight, priced off the prior trading day's close. FactSet skips a few holiday weeks, so the series has occasional gaps.
The 4.50% line is the yield level strategists watch as the point where higher rates start to weigh on equity multiples. Shaded weeks mark every stretch the 10-year Treasury closed above it. The yield is the constant-maturity close on the same day the P/E was priced.
