Hand-picked macroeconomic indicators pulled directly from primary sources (US Census, BLS, Federal Reserve) and refreshed on the release schedule. No analyst spin, just the numbers that move markets, with the context that makes them useful.
Long-term government yield, 1800 to present
The latest reading sits against a 4.70% average across 1800 to 2025. The full chart shows how today's rate compares with inflation shocks, wars, recessions, and the pandemic low.
Weekly forward 12-month P/E against the 10-year Treasury
A 10-year yield above 4.50% has tended to squeeze what investors pay for earnings. The chart marks every week the yield crossed that line and shows what the market multiple did next.
1-year return of the AI stocks vs the rest of the index
Equal-weighted index of the 44 AI stocks in the S&P 500 against the other 456 members, with every constituent by group.
1-year return of the stocks AI could hurt vs the rest of the index
The S&P 500 companies whose business AI could hurt, with the reason for each, and whether analysts are cutting their profit forecasts or only the price has fallen.
