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China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd. (001979) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd.

001979Market cap $10BPrice $1.2

Country🇨🇳China

SectorReal Estate

IndustryReal Estate Dev

Develops and manages large-scale residential, office, and industrial properties across China, born from the Shekou port zone that kickstarted the country's 1980s special economic zone experiment. It's now one of the few state-backed developers still expanding while private rivals drown in debt.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-18%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-6%1

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-1%2

Rev CAGR (3y)-4%1

Rev CAGR (5y)-3%1

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+89%10

EPS Growth Y+2+71%10

EPS Growth Y+3+8%6

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin4%2

Net Income Margin0%2

Free Cash Flow Margin21%8

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA14.11

Efficiency

ROE-0%2

ROA-0%2

Earnings Stability22

GEAR+VERY WEAK6

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)491

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)292

P/BV0.710

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd242

EV/EBIT Fwd671

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield48.1%10

Dividend Yield0.7%2

Momentum

Short term

1 month return+9%10

3 month return+18%9

YTD return-12%3

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh71%4

1 year return-25%2

Long term

3 year return-35%1

5 year return-34%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.48

Volatility37%5

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin21%8

Free Cash Flow Yield48.1%10

Quality

ROCE1%2

Earnings Stability22

Net Debt/EBITDA14.11

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

001979China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.

Revenue FY25$22.1B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK7 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-6%1

Revenue, next 1Y-1%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-4%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR-3%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+89%10

EPS growth, FY27E+71%10

EPS growth, FY28E+8%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 71%/yr vs revenue -4%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 93% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 6%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

Revenue is set to shrink 4%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Revenue fell 6%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep shrinking around 4%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to shrink 3%/yr, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is still shrinking. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

001979China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.

Total return Current−31.6%

Price return Current−50.6%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE37 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return+9%10

3-month return+18%9

YTD return-12%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high71%4

1-year return-25%2

3-year return-35%1

5-year return-34%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (+9%) and over three months (+18%).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-35% over three years and -34% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 25% over the past year, now 29% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-12%).

BOTTOM LINE

Early Turnaround

A poor multi-year track record but a sharp recent rally. Momentum is turning up, yet the trend is young and unproven — it needs follow-through to confirm rather than fade. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

001979China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.

Revenue FY25$22.1B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK7 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-6%1

Revenue, next 1Y-1%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-4%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR-3%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+89%10

EPS growth, FY27E+71%10

EPS growth, FY28E+8%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 71%/yr vs revenue -4%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 93% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 6%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

Revenue is set to shrink 4%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Revenue fell 6%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep shrinking around 4%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to shrink 3%/yr, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is still shrinking. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

001979China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.

Total return Current−31.6%

Price return Current−50.6%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE37 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return+9%10

3-month return+18%9

YTD return-12%3

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high71%4

1-year return-25%2

3-year return-35%1

5-year return-34%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (+9%) and over three months (+18%).

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-35% over three years and -34% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 25% over the past year, now 29% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-12%).

BOTTOM LINE

Early Turnaround

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community