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Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. (600048) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd.

600048Market cap $10BPrice $0.9

Country🇨🇳China

SectorReal Estate

IndustryReal Estate Dev

Develops and sells residential properties across China, backed by state ownership that makes it one of the country's largest developers. It keeps building and selling homes even as private rivals collapse under debt.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-21%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+3%4

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-14%1

Rev CAGR (3y)-11%1

Rev CAGR (5y)-7%1

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+20%8

EPS Growth Y+2+184%10

EPS Growth Y+3+7%6

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin4%2

Net Income Margin-0%2

Free Cash Flow Margin8%5

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA15.31

Efficiency

ROE-0%2

ROA0%2

Earnings Stability22

GEAR+VERY WEAK8

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)214

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)183

P/BV0.410

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd192

EV/EBIT Fwd282

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield33.8%10

Dividend Yield0.6%2

Momentum

Short term

1 month return+9%10

3 month return+25%10

YTD return-5%4

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh72%4

1 year return-26%2

Long term

3 year return-51%1

5 year return-51%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.39

Volatility31%6

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin8%5

Free Cash Flow Yield33.8%10

Quality

ROCE2%2

Earnings Stability22

Net Debt/EBITDA15.31

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

600048Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co.

Revenue FY25$44.1B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK8 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+3%4

Revenue, next 1Y-14%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-11%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR-7%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+20%8

EPS growth, FY27E+184%10

EPS growth, FY28E+7%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 92% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to shrink 11%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Revenue grew 3%/yr over the last 3 years, but it is set to shrink 11%/yr from here.

Over five years revenue is set to shrink 7%/yr, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business heading into decline. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

600048Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co.

Total return Current−8.6%

Price return Current−34.8%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE37 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return+9%10

3-month return+25%10

YTD return-5%4

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high72%4

1-year return-26%2

3-year return-51%1

5-year return-51%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (+9%) and over three months (+25%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level so far this year (-5%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-51% over three years and -51% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 26% over the past year, now 28% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

BOTTOM LINE

Early Turnaround

A poor multi-year track record but a sharp recent rally. Momentum is turning up, yet the trend is young and unproven — it needs follow-through to confirm rather than fade. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Poly Developments. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

600048Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co.

Revenue FY25$44.1B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK8 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+3%4

Revenue, next 1Y-14%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-11%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR-7%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E+20%8

EPS growth, FY27E+184%10

EPS growth, FY28E+7%6

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

None flagged.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 92% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to shrink 11%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Revenue grew 3%/yr over the last 3 years, but it is set to shrink 11%/yr from here.

Over five years revenue is set to shrink 7%/yr, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business heading into decline. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

600048Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co.

Total return Current−8.6%

Price return Current−34.8%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

AVERAGE37 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return+9%10

3-month return+25%10

YTD return-5%4

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high72%4

1-year return-26%2

3-year return-51%1

5-year return-51%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over the past month (+9%) and over three months (+25%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level so far this year (-5%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-51% over three years and -51% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 26% over the past year, now 28% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

BOTTOM LINE

Early Turnaround

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Poly Developments. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community