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Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. (002304) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd.

002304Market cap $8.37BPrice $5.5

Country🇨🇳China

SectorConsumer

IndustryBeverages

Produces baijiu, China's fiery national spirit, through centuries-old fermentation techniques in Jiangsu province. One of China's top three baijiu makers, its "Blue Classic" line turned a regional brand into a nationwide favorite at weddings, banquets, and business toasts alike.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-44%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-14%1

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-17%1

Rev CAGR (3y)-3%1

Rev CAGR (5y)+3%2

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1-31%2

EPS Growth Y+2+36%9

EPS Growth Y+3+55%9

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin6%3

Net Income Margin3%3

Free Cash Flow Margin-11%2

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA-11.910

Efficiency

ROE1%2

ROA1%2

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+VERY WEAK12

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)342

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)183

P/BV1.29

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd116

EV/EBIT Fwd156

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield-2.8%2

Dividend Yield3.9%8

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-6%4

3 month return-3%5

YTD return-36%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh53%2

1 year return-43%1

Long term

3 year return-66%1

5 year return-74%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.29

Volatility27%8

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin-11%2

Free Cash Flow Yield-2.8%2

Quality

ROCE2%2

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDA-11.910

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

002304Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co.

Revenue FY25$2.7B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK5 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-14%1

Revenue, next 1Y-17%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-3%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+3%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-31%2

EPS growth, FY27E+36%9

EPS growth, FY28E+55%9

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Revenue fell 14%/yr over the last 3 years, and it is still set to shrink 3%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 36%/yr vs revenue -3%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 31% next year.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 95% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 14%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

Revenue is set to shrink 3%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 3%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business whose decline is easing. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

002304Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co.

Total return Current−20.9%

Price return Current−45.8%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK8 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-6%4

3-month return-3%5

YTD return-36%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high53%2

1-year return-43%1

3-year return-66%1

5-year return-74%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-6%) and over three months (-3%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-66% over three years and -74% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 43% over the past year, now 47% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-36%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Yanghe Distillery. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

002304Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co.

Revenue FY25$2.7B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK5 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-14%1

Revenue, next 1Y-17%1

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-3%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+3%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-31%2

EPS growth, FY27E+36%9

EPS growth, FY28E+55%9

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Revenue fell 14%/yr over the last 3 years, and it is still set to shrink 3%/yr.

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 36%/yr vs revenue -3%/yr), so margins should widen. One year dips: EPS falls 31% next year.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 95% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 14%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

Revenue is set to shrink 3%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 3%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business whose decline is easing. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

002304Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co.

Total return Current−20.9%

Price return Current−45.8%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK8 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-6%4

3-month return-3%5

YTD return-36%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high53%2

1-year return-43%1

3-year return-66%1

5-year return-74%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-6%) and over three months (-3%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-66% over three years and -74% over five), behind 90% of the market.

It's down 43% over the past year, now 47% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-36%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Yanghe Distillery. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community