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China Railway Group Limited (601390) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated today

China Railway Group Limited

601390Market cap $15BPrice $0.6

Country🇨🇳China

SectorIndustrials

IndustryConstruction & Engineering

Builds railways, bridges, tunnels, and highways across China and beyond, from high-speed rail lines to entire subway networks. It's one of the world's largest construction firms, with a hand in nearly every major Chinese infrastructure megaproject.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-18%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-2%2

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-1%2

Rev CAGR (3y)-0%1

Rev CAGR (5y)-0%1

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1-4%3

EPS Growth Y+2+3%5

EPS Growth Y+3+4%5

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin4%2

Net Income Margin2%2

Free Cash Flow Margin-4%2

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA6.61

Efficiency

ROE5%3

ROA1%3

Earnings Stability55

GEAR+VERY WEAK11

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)510

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)510

P/BV0.310

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd88

EV/EBIT Fwd165

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield-44.4%1

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-2%6

3 month return+5%8

YTD return-18%2

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh69%3

1 year return-23%2

Long term

3 year return-29%1

5 year return-10%3

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.48

Volatility27%8

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin-4%2

Free Cash Flow Yield-44.4%1

Quality

ROCE4%3

Earnings Stability55

Net Debt/EBITDA6.61

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

601390China Railway Group

Revenue FY25$156B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK3 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-2%2

Revenue, next 1Y-1%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-0%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR-0%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-4%3

EPS growth, FY27E+3%5

EPS growth, FY28E+4%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 3%/yr vs revenue -0.4%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 4% next year.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 97% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 2%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

Revenue is set to hold flat over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Revenue fell 2%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep shrinking around 0.4%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to hold flat, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is still shrinking. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

601390China Railway Group

Total return Current−35.0%

Price return Current−49.8%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK24 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-2%6

3-month return+5%8

YTD return-18%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high69%3

1-year return-23%2

3-year return-29%1

5-year return-10%3

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+5%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-2%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-29% over three years and -10% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 23% over the past year, now 31% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-18%).

BOTTOM LINE

Weak Tape

Returns across short and long horizons rank poorly versus the market. Momentum offers no support here; the case has to come from other factors. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on China Railway. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

601390China Railway Group

Revenue FY25$156B

GROWTH RATING↗

VERY WEAK3 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-2%2

Revenue, next 1Y-1%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR-0%1

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR-0%1

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26E-4%3

EPS growth, FY27E+3%5

EPS growth, FY28E+4%5

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Earnings are set to grow in step with sales (EPS about 3%/yr vs revenue -0.4%/yr). One year dips: EPS falls 4% next year.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 97% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 2%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

Revenue is set to hold flat over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.1/10

Revenue fell 2%/yr over the last 3 years and is set to keep shrinking around 0.4%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to hold flat, behind 90% of companies worldwide.1/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that is still shrinking. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

601390China Railway Group

Total return Current−35.0%

Price return Current−49.8%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

WEAK24 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-2%6

3-month return+5%8

YTD return-18%2

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high69%3

1-year return-23%2

3-year return-29%1

5-year return-10%3

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Strong recent results. The stock is outperforming over three months (+5%).

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-2%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-29% over three years and -10% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 23% over the past year, now 31% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming so far this year (-18%).

BOTTOM LINE

Weak Tape

Returns across short and long horizons rank poorly versus the market. Momentum offers no support here; the case has to come from other factors. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on China Railway. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community