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Air China Limited (753) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Air China Limited

753Market cap $16BPrice $0.5

Country🇨🇳China

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAirlines

Flies passengers and cargo across China and the globe as the country's flag carrier, hauling government officials and everyday travelers alike. It's the only Chinese airline in the Star Alliance, connecting Beijing to over 40 countries.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-38%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)+47%10

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)+17%8

Rev CAGR (3y)+7%5

Rev CAGR (5y)+5%5

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1Loss1

EPS Growth Y+20%5

EPS Growth Y+3+45%9

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin-1%1

Net Income Margin-1%2

Free Cash Flow Margin7%5

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA6.81

Efficiency

ROE-4%2

ROA-1%2

Earnings Stabilityna–

GEAR+WEAK16

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)610

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)203

P/BV1.87

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd106

EV/EBIT Fwdna–

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield12.1%10

Dividend Yieldna–

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-5%5

3 month return-15%2

YTD return-48%1

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh47%1

1 year return-35%1

Long term

3 year return-31%1

5 year return-33%2

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta1.13

Volatility44%4

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin7%5

Free Cash Flow Yield12.1%10

Quality

ROCE-1%1

Earnings Stabilityna–

Net Debt/EBITDA6.81

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

753Air China

Revenue FY25$24.5B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE56 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+47%10

Revenue, next 1Y+17%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+7%5

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+5%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26ELoss1

EPS growth, FY27E0%5

EPS growth, FY28E+45%9

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 47%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 56% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 7%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Revenue grew 47%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 7%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 5%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

WEAKNESSES

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Top-Line Rocket

A middle-of-the-pack grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

753Air China

Total return Current−22.6%

Price return Current−26.8%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK5 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-5%5

3-month return-15%2

YTD return-48%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high47%1

1-year return-35%1

3-year return-31%1

5-year return-33%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-5%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-31% over three years and -33% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 35% over the past year, now 53% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-15%) and so far this year (-48%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Air China. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

753Air China

Revenue FY25$24.5B

GROWTH RATING↗

AVERAGE56 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR+47%10

Revenue, next 1Y+17%8

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+7%5

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+5%5

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY26ELoss1

EPS growth, FY27E0%5

EPS growth, FY28E+45%9

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Revenue grew 47%/yr over the last 3 years, ahead of 90% of companies worldwide.10/10

WATCH

A mid-pack grower, ahead of 56% of companies worldwide.

Revenue is set to grow 7%/yr over the next 3 years, a little ahead of the market.6/10

Revenue grew 47%/yr over the last 3 years; forecasts see it cooling to 7%/yr.

Over five years revenue is set to grow 5%/yr, about average versus companies worldwide.5/10

WEAKNESSES

The company is loss-making, so its revenue growth is not backed by profit yet.

BOTTOM LINE

Top-Line Rocket

A middle-of-the-pack grower that is slowing. The one thing to watch: the company is not profitable yet.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

753Air China

Total return Current−22.6%

Price return Current−26.8%

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK5 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-5%5

3-month return-15%2

YTD return-48%1

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high47%1

1-year return-35%1

3-year return-31%1

5-year return-33%2

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-5%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-31% over three years and -33% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 35% over the past year, now 53% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-15%) and so far this year (-48%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Air China. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community