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Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) Stock Verdict & Ratings | Investment Bastion

Stock Verdict·Updated 1d ago

Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

AAPMarket cap $2.49BPrice $41.2

Country🇺🇸United States

SectorConsumer

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Sells replacement auto parts and accessories to shops and DIYers across thousands of stores nationwide. Despite being one of the "big four" auto parts chains, it's been losing market share and profitability to rivals like O'Reilly and AutoZone.

In Bastion Portfolios?

52W Return-23%Global Market +16%?

01Key Ratings

How does this stock score across Bastion factors?

Growth

Historical Revenue

Rev CAGR (3y)-2%2

Revenue Forecast

Rev CAGR (1y)-1%2

Rev CAGR (3y)+1%2

Rev CAGR (5y)+1%2

Earnings Forecast

EPS Growth Y+1+310%10

EPS Growth Y+2+29%8

EPS Growth Y+3+15%7

Quality

Margins

EBIT Margin4%2

Net Income Margin1%2

Free Cash Flow Margin0%3

Debt

Net Debt/EBITDA2.04

Efficiency

ROE5%3

ROA1%2

Earnings Stability33

GEAR+VERY WEAK6

Overall rating across all five factors

Value

Price Multiples

P/E Ratio (Forward)127

P/E Ratio (Forward 3y)98

P/BV1.19

EV Multiples

EV/EBITDA Fwd87

EV/EBIT Fwd146

Yield

Free Cash Flow Yield0.9%3

Dividend Yield2.4%6

Momentum

Short term

1 month return-3%6

3 month return-25%1

YTD return+6%6

Mid term

Price vs 52wHigh64%3

1 year return-20%2

Long term

3 year return-16%2

5 year return-78%1

Risk Shield

Price Risk

Beta0.85

Volatility60%2

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow Margin0%3

Free Cash Flow Yield0.9%3

Quality

ROCE6%3

Earnings Stability33

Net Debt/EBITDA2.04

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

AAPAdvance Auto Parts

Revenue FY26$8.6B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK16 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-2%2

Revenue, next 1Y-1%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+1%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+1%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+310%10

EPS growth, FY28E+29%8

EPS growth, FY29E+15%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 29%/yr vs revenue 1%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 1%/yr from here.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 84% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 2%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

Revenue is set to grow 1%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 1%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK8 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-3%6

3-month return-25%1

YTD return+6%6

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high64%3

1-year return-20%2

3-year return-16%2

5-year return-78%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-3%) and so far this year (+6%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-16% over three years and -78% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 20% over the past year, now 36% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-25%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

Returns rank poorly over both the short and long run, and the price is still falling. Momentum is firmly negative — catching this is a bet against the tape, not with it. Wait for a base to form. The one thing to watch: the multi-year record is weak.

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Advance Auto Parts, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

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Loading charts…

02Growth

Is it actually growing, and how fast?

AAPAdvance Auto Parts

Revenue FY26$8.6B

GROWTH RATING↗

WEAK16 / 100

REVENUE GROWTH▾SCORE

Revenue, last 3Y, CAGR-2%2

Revenue, next 1Y-1%2

Revenue, next 3Y, CAGR+1%2

Revenue, next 5Y, CAGR+1%2

EARNINGS FORECAST▾SCORE

EPS growth, FY27E+310%10

EPS growth, FY28E+29%8

EPS growth, FY29E+15%7

GROWTH ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

Earnings are set to grow faster than sales (EPS about 29%/yr vs revenue 1%/yr), so margins should widen.

WATCH

After shrinking over the last 3 years, revenue is set to grow 1%/yr from here.

WEAKNESSES

Growth is the weak spot here, trailing 84% of companies worldwide.

Revenue fell 2%/yr over the last 3 years, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

Revenue is set to grow 1%/yr over the next 3 years, behind most of the market.2/10

Over five years revenue is set to grow 1%/yr, behind 80% of companies worldwide.2/10

BOTTOM LINE

Stalled Business

Growth is a weak point here: a business that's turning around. The one thing to watch: revenue has shrunk over the past 3 years.

03Price Momentum

Is the market behind it right now?

MOMENTUM RATING↗

VERY WEAK8 / 100

SHORT-TERM RETURNS▾SCORE

1-month return-3%6

3-month return-25%1

YTD return+6%6

MID & LONG-TERM▾SCORE

% of 52-week high64%3

1-year return-20%2

3-year return-16%2

5-year return-78%1

MOMENTUM ASSESSMENT

STRENGTHS

None flagged.

WATCH

Returns sit at the market level over the past month (-3%) and so far this year (+6%).

WEAKNESSES

Weak long-term results. It has been a disappointing long-term hold (-16% over three years and -78% over five), behind 80% of the market.

It's down 20% over the past year, now 36% below its 52-week high. That is lagging the market.

The stock is underperforming over three months (-25%).

BOTTOM LINE

Falling Knife

04Value

Are you paying a fair price for it?

Stop guessing on Advance Auto Parts, Inc.. Get the full investment case.

Premium

$20.75/month

Billed annually at $249/year $348

✓
Stock VerdictValuation and investment strategy for 4,000+ stocks. Days of hedge fund analyst research, done in 2 minutes.
✓
RadarFind your next investment idea: top-ranked stocks across all 9 Bastion strategies.
✓
Portfolio ManagerCheck if Bastion algorithms added the stock you care about to their portfolios.

Secure via Stripe

Trusted by 1,000+ investors in our community